Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 041201
FFSCRP
TXC057-041300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CALHOUN COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TEMPORARY BREAK 
IN THE RAINFALL ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING MAY CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP 
ACROSS THE COASTAL THIS MORNING AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMS IN 
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE 
COAST. THEREFORE FLOODING RAINS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
COASTAL COUNTIES.

$$

METZ

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
237 AM CST MON NOV 4 2002

SHORT-TERM(0-48HR)...A VOLATILE SITUATION WILL RAPIDLY UNFOLD. A
WARM FRONT POISED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT 08Z WILL PENETRATE THE
COASTAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING 500HPA UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND YANK THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AND
PROVIDE MACROSCALE ASCENSION(ESPECIALLY THE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS). STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
BEND AND GENERATE SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE OMEGA. GLFMEX/PACIFIC OCEAN
WATER TAP WILL RESULT IN HIGH PWATS/K-INDICES AND WILL ACCORDINGLY
EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG 0-3KM
HELICITY AND HIGH SWEAT VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTS
LOCALIZED SPINUPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ABRUPTLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND BY MID MORNING TUESDAY OVER THE FAR
EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE MAV TEMPERATURES/POPS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT/MESOSCALE EFFECTS SUPPORTS BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TODAY. COLD THERMAL ADVECTION/ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
SUPPORTS BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG-TERM(48-168HR)...TRANQUIL PERIOD EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES. WIDESPREAD 40S ARE EXPECTED INLAND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH VERY DRY AIR AND A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER.
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT MOISTURE/FORCING APPEARS
INADEQUATE FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL TEMPER THE MEX MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ABUNDANT STANDING WATER.

MARINE...VOLITAL WX FORECAST NXT 36HRS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COLD
FRONT SHD BE CONFINED TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THRU MIDDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH TO THE COAST...AS NXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG S/WS
MOVES OVER SOUTH TEXAS...AND STRONG 35-40KT LLJ DEVELOPS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BNDRY LYR STABILITY. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ AND FNTL PROGS...WILL OPT TO KEEP SCAS UP
THRU THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE WIND
SPEEDS ARE LOWER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAYS THIS AFTN. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HINDER SMALL CRAFT OPERATION. WILL MENTION WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR TSTMS. PCPN WILL END BY TUE MORNING AS SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST.  FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE WATERS TUE
NGT/WED WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN ITS WAKE.

CONCERNING TIDES...TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABT ONE FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO PROLONGED NE FETCH. AND BEGINNING TONIGHT...WE
WILL BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. IN
ADDITION...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ADD TO THE
PROBLEM. THEREFORE FEEL ITS NECESSARY TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING THRU TUESDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP TR 074/058 067/054 066 ++600
VCT TR 064/055 068/047 064 ++600
LRD RE 059/055 070/052 067 ++200

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TXZ229>234-239>247 THROUGH TONIGHT.
    ...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

85/75

TXZ229>234-239>247-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT SCATTERED
AREAS OF RAIN WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-HALF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY
COULD TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TO RELAY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS.

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