Special Marine Warning 79, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 4 2002

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.  FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA
IN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z MON.  THE EXTENT OF THE PCPN WITH THE FRONT IS
THE BIG QUESTION.  12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL CAP.  THIS CAP
APPEARS TO SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY BEGIN TO
ERODE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION SCATTERED BOTH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  AVN AND ETA GUIDANCE KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR MON.  NGM GUIDANCE STAYS IN THE CHC RANGE.  BASED ON
THE FACT THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LACK SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS TO
SUPPORT LONG LIVED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...I WILL KEEP THE POPS IN
THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST.

STRONG RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  EXTENDED MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN DAY 6 AND 7 WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.  I
WILL KEEP BOTH SAT AND SUN DRY AT THIS TIME.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

GARNET