Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
240 AM EDT MON APR 15 2002

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE AROUND THE GRTLKS...OUR ONE WEEK OF SPRING IS
OVER AND SUMMER ARRIVES DRIER AIR SPREADS IN TDY AND S/WV PROGGED
TO PASS OVR LWR GRTLKS BY MIDDAY SO WL BE A RACE BETWEEN DVLPMNT OF
NEW CONVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BHND S/WV. CAPE PROGGED TO ALMOST 2K
WITH LI TO -4 WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR. WL CONT WITH A CHC OF A
SHOWER/STORM E COUNTIES ESP NR LAKESHORE WHERE A LAKE BREEZE COULD
BE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. DRY TNGT THEN ANOTHER S/WV
MOVS ACRS MIDWEST TUE THIS TIME FROM THE SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT. ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BRINGING AXIS OF
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ACRS MOST OF FCST AREA BY LATE AFTRN. AVN A BIT
SLOWER AND LOOKS A LITTLE TOO STG AND MAY HAVE TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN MODEL. NGM IS WEAKEST AND CLOSER TO AVN POSTION ACRS W
OH BY 00Z WED. WITH SHARP RIDGE ALOFT AND ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERABLY
DRIER TUE WL LEAVE OUT CHC OF STORMS. NEXT CDFNT FOR WED. FNT LOOKS
RELATIVELY WEAK AS RIDGE POSTION REMAINS OVER SE STATES BUT WL HAVE
TO MENTION CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS. NGM AND AVN TEMP GUIDANCE SIMILAR
AND LOOKS GOOD. 80 NW OH TDY AND NR RECORD 80S TUE ALTHOUGH A
LAKEBREEZE STILL PSBL ALG IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.

.CLE...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

KOSARIK