Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002

ZFP:
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EVOLVING AS MID AND UPPER LVL ENERGY DIVES SE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION CUTTING OFF
LOW PRES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE REGION...THUS PLACING OUR CWFA IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SEASONABLY MODERATE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH A
DEEP AND MOIST SLY FLOW.

OVERALL...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LOWER LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NWD THROUGH TUE AND OUR ZONE PACKAGE WILL
HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. WEAKER DISTURBANCES AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUT-OFF WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS THE 12Z MODELS DO INDICATE SUBTLE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES.

TONIGHT...DECENT UVM AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH A REGION OF
HIGH THETA AIR TUGGED NWD ALG THE COAST AS THE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW
BACKS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A HEAVY RNFL THREAT TONIGHT MAINLY N
OF NBC. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RFNL IS PSBL AT TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS ON TUE...WHERE OUR FA IS UNDER THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF A 60 KT UPPER LVL JET. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE. OUR REGION IS JUST TOO DRY TO CONSIDER A FFA
AT THIS TIME...BUT DO PLAN ON MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE QUASI-STATIONARY CUT-OFF WEAKENS TO A
SHEAR AXIS WHILE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE E. WILL FCST A
RETURN TO PARLTY CLOUDY SKIES WED-THU WITH 30 POPS AND WILL LOWER
POPS FRI-SUN TO ONLY A SLGT CHC.

CWF:
TROF INLAND WITH HIGH PRES TO THE SE WILL KEEP S TO SW WINDS
ACRS MARINE ZONES THRU MID WEEK. EXPECT SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT EARLY
INCREASING TO 15 KT THRU MON AND MUCH OF TUE W/GUST NR 20 KT. WILL
NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES THOUGH WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...OFFSHORE UP
TO 5 FT UNTIL EARLY WED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
CHS   74  88  74  86 /  60  50  40  50
SAV   74  89  73  87 /  50  50  40  50
CHL   76  85  77  84 /  60  50  40  50
NBC   74  89  74  86 /  60  50  40  50
RBW   74  89  72  86 /  60  50  40  50
MHP   74  89  72  87 /  50  50  40  50

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.