Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Charleston, SC

000 
WGUS72 KCHS 102349
FFSCHS
SCC053-110010-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

HAS BEEN CANCELED.

RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO 
ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS 
PASSED. THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
500 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

UPDATED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WATCH

BANDS OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NBC AREA SOUTH AND
MOVING INLAND. SCATTERED ACTIVITY N-NE OF CHS. IN THE AREAS NOT
RECEIVING THE RAIN...TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH TDS IN
THE LOWER OR MID 70S. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE
HAS DECREASED AGAIN AFTER SOME INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE IS STILL EVIDENT ON ITS NORTH SIDE OVER THE ATLANTIC.

THIS FCST IS OBVIOUSLY GEARED TOWARD THE CURRENT NHC/TPC FCST OF
KYLE WHICH HAS IT OFFSHORE OF JAX AT 12Z FRI...NEAR THE SAV AREA BY
00Z SAT...AND TO BETWEEN CHS AND CAE BY 12Z SAT. BASED ON THIS...AND
LITTLE OR NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IS THE CURRENT FCST
(ALTHOUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF STREAM IT CERTAINLY COULD GAIN
SOME STRENGTH)....THE BEST THREAT OF HEAVY/STEADY RAINS AND HIGHEST
WINDS WOULD BE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN GA AND FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT IN SC.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE THEREAFTER...WITH A DECREASE IN
POPS. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH MORE SO THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND A SMALL SHIFT IN ITS PROJECTED PATH AND/OR A
CHANGE IN ITS INTENSITY COULD MEAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE. FOR NOW
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH TIDES STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH (DEPARTURES AROUND 0.5-0.8 FT) THIS IS A
CONCERN FOR LATER FCST PERIODS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NOW SEEM TO BE
IN THE 1/2-1 INCH RANGE FOR EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD THRU SAT...BUT WITH
LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT
FROM BQK SOUTH...IT LIKELY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS
IN LATER PERIODS AND ONE COULD BE ISSUED FURTHER NORTH...EITHER FOR
THE 5 OR 11 PM UPDATE FROM NHC THIS EVENING. ALSO...STAY TUNED IN
THE EVENT THAT THIS OFFICE STARTS ISSUING HLSS.

BACK-TRACKING TO TONIGHT...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E RIDGING
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE S WILL LEAD TO HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST. TEMPS NOT FAR FROM GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH HIGHER TDS AND THE WEDGE
ERODING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE SUN
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A CLEAN PASSAGE INITIALLY AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AND SUB-TROPICAL JET ALOFT
MAINTAINS DECENT AMOUNT OF AT LEAST HIGH CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN...ALLOWING FOR SMALL POPS
COLUMBUS DAY IF TIMING IS OFF AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL WED/THU AS
LOW-MID LEVEL TROF FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. STRONG CAA SUN NIGHT/MON
WITH A DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED (PROBABLY AT LEAST 15 DEGREES
FROM SUN TO MON BASED ON BIG DROP IN 1000-850 THICKNESS.

MARINE...BOTH ETA AND AVN DO A TERRIBLE JOB HANDLING KYLE. AVN
IDENTIFIES IT WELL BUT MOVES IT WAY TOO FAST. ETA HAS A DIFFICULT
TIME IDENTIFYING IT...TAKING IT ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WHERE IT LOSES IT...ONLY TO PICK IT UP AGAIN IN 36 HOURS ALONG THE
SC/GA BORDER NEAR AUGUSTA. WILL HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON NHC TRACK
FOR THE FORECAST. SEAS STILL RUNNING 5-6 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT SEAS TO
DIMINISH...RATHER THEY WILL LIKELY SLOWLY BUILD WITH APPROACH OF
KYLE. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR THE SC/GA WATERS.
HOWEVER...WILL DROP MENTION OF EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE HARBOR SINCE
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE HARBOR FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP IN
ADVANCE OF KYLE.

PRELIMINARY #S:
CHS   69  83  70  84 /  50  60  70  50
SAV   70  82  70  85 /  70  80  70  40
CHL   71  80  71  82 /  50  60  70  50
NBC   70  82  70  84 /  60  70  70  50
RBW   67  82  69  84 /  40  60  70  40
MHP   67  83  68  84 /  40  60  60  30

.CHS...
GA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AMZ354-374 AND GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AMZ352 AND SCZ047-048-049 NEAR THE COAST
     AND SCZ050 NEAR THE COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH.
     SCA AMZ350.

PM/HSA

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-101115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
523 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JC