Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
434 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2002

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE MARITIME PROVINCES FRIDAY...DRAWING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE.
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROF CROSSING QUEBEC TODAY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL REACH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

KCBW 88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW. UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP...THE
APPROACH OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND A COLD FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP REGIONWIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS TO REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS OF 80 TO 85
NORTH...RANGING TO 85 TO 90 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.

WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW
REACHING THE REGION...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST FRIDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S DOWNEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.CAR...NONE.

NORCROSS

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-042100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
640 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE
TODAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...COMBINED WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR IN
PLACE...WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE HOLIDAY SHOULD WATCH FOR
SIGNS OF BAD WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO ACT ACCORDINGLY. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

APFFEL