Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Billings, MT

July 19, 2002Rosebud County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2002, 4:36 PM MDT for Rosebud County, Montana. It was in force for 54 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2002, 4:36 PM MDT (22:36 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2002, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Whole counties

County Rosebud County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 19, 5:10 PM MDT	Hail 1	Ashland, MT

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1546 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
WUUS55 KBYZ 192236
SVRBYZ
MTC087-192330-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
435 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 435 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF LAME DEER...OR ABOUT 32 MILES
  SOUTH OF COLSTRIP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   ASHLAND BY 520 PM MDT.

LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN 
THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A 
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

$$

LAT...LON 4580 10621 4578 10625 4536 10624 4528 10638
          4524 10671 4561 10669 4584 10623

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 1:58 PM MDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 1:58 PM MDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
158 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SC/SE
MONTANA LOOK GOOD. INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH WILL SEE STORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF/ENDING BY MIDNIGHT AS FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES IN THE WEST PORTION
OF THE CWA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP AND WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED T-STORMS/SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON. MORE STABLE AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION SUN WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP DROPPING TO ZERO. 500MB
HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 582-585DM SAT FOR ABOUT A 5 DEGREE COOLING...AND
ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREE COOLING SUN AS NORTHERLY WINDS HOLD IN PLACE AT THE
SFC. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING ANY FURTHER SO
A RETURN TO COMFORTABLE TEMPS IS IN STORE. SPRINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOW FAR NORTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENDS
UP BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN US IS THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME.
BY WEDNESDAY THE EXTENDED AVN KEEPS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA...WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A QUIETER AND COOLER SOLUTION WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES OVERRIDING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WARMER AIR. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO FIT RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. MACZKO

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/088 058/087 054/085 060/086 060/085 060/086 060/086
    42/T    20/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
LVM 056/085 051/083 050/083 053/084 053/085 052/085 052/085
    42/T    20/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
HDN 060/090 056/089 052/086 059/087 060/086 060/088 060/088
    40/B    00/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 065/090 059/088 057/088 062/086 062/087 062/086 062/086
    63/T    00/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 066/091 059/087 056/087 061/086 060/086 060/088 060/088
    63/T    00/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 061/087 057/084 054/086 059/084 059/083 058/084 058/084
    63/T    00/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 060/085 055/085 053/086 059/086 058/087 057/087 057/087
    42/T    20/B    00/B    33/T    30/B    00/B    00/B

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 5:58 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Rosebud	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.