Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Billings, MT

May 28, 2002Yellowstone County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 28, 2002, 5:32 PM MDT for Yellowstone County, Montana. It was in force for 58 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2002, 5:32 PM MDT (23:32 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2002, 6:30 PM MDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yellowstone County, MT

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 28, 5:35 PM MDT	Thunderstorm Wind 60 E	Shepherd, MT

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 260 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KBYZ 282332
SVRBIL
MTC111-290030-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
530 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 530 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SHEPHERD...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  BILLINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   WORDEN BY 545 PM MDT.
   POMPEYS PILLAR BY 600 PM MDT.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS. 

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE EARLIER WARNING FOR CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4606 10852 4586 10833 4591 10806 4608 10769
          4620 10755 4641 10775 4625 10802 4622 10831
          4613 10838

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 28, 3:04 PM MDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 3:04 PM MDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT...COR TO CCF NUMBERS...
304 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...

FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. BEST
DYNAMICS WITH THE WAVE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. WEAK
RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ON RADAR. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TONIGHT...ENDING WEST THEN EAST. DEWPOINTS HANGING IN UPPER
40S EASTERN ZONES WITH FAIR LIS AND SOME CAPE. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR GUSTY WINDS. BUT OVERALL CAPE AND
SHEAR NOT SUPPORTING TOO MUCH AS FAIR AS SEVERE CHANCES GO THIS
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FOR A 3-5 DEGREE WARM UP ACROSS AREA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING SHOWING UP ON MODELS AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OVER AREA
AND WILL GO DRY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. WEAK FORCING MOVES ACROSS
AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH. AGAIN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
BUT SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS SOME INSTABILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
ISOLATED POPS WESTERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODELS INDICATING SOME EASTERLY
FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SO WONT GET TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTENED A BIT BUT AGAIN VERY LITTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO FIND. WILL GO WITH DRY AND NEARLY PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY. RASCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

AVN BRINGS A STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING A GOOD WIND SHEAR PROFILE TO SC/SE MT.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON ABOVE REASONING...WILL RAISE POPS FOR SATURDAY.
AS THE WAVE KICKS EAST ON SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE AREA. FLOW ALFOT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SC/SE MT
AS WEST COAST TROF BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD...BRINGING MORE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA. PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
TROF ON MONDAY WHICH SETS UP GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...MRF
IS INDICATING A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WEST COAST TROF
MOVES EAST SUNDAY...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES OVER SC/SE MT BEGIN
LOWERING. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RICHMOND

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 056/085 053/083 049/080 045/076 046/068 043/068
    40/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/T    23/T    30/B
LVM 048/082 046/082 043/080 048/077 043/073 044/067 041/067
    40/B    02/T    20/B    34/T    43/T    34/T    30/B
HDN 051/086 054/086 051/084 049/080 044/076 045/069 042/069
    40/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/T    23/T    30/B
MLS 055/086 057/086 054/084 047/076 045/075 046/071 043/071
    40/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/T    23/T    30/B
4BQ 054/085 056/085 053/083 048/078 046/076 047/072 044/072
    40/B    00/B    00/B    24/T    43/T    34/T    30/B
BHK 053/083 055/084 052/082 046/074 044/073 045/071 042/071
    40/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/T    23/T    30/B
SHR 049/082 051/085 048/082 047/077 045/074 046/072 043/072
    40/B    00/B    00/B    34/T    43/T    35/T    30/B

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 4:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Yellowstone	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.