Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Billings, MT

June 21, 2002Rosebud County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 21, 2002, 3:54 PM MDT for Rosebud County, Montana. It was in force for 66 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2002, 3:54 PM MDT (21:54 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2002, 5:00 PM MDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
NWS Billings, MT
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Rosebud County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 21, 4:14 PM MDTHail 1Forsyth, MT
Jun 21, 4:14 PM MDTHail 1Forsyth, MT

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 21, 3:15 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2002-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2002-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2135 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KBYZ 212154
SVRBYZ
MTC087-212300-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
354 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL ROSEBUD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 500 PM MDT

* AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORSYTH...OR ABOUT 16
  MILES NORTHWEST OF COLSTRIP...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   FORSYTH BY 425 PM MDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4597 10654 4595 10693 4613 10692 4652 10712 4654 10661

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 21, 2:09 PM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 2:09 PM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
209 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON SPITTING OUT A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY ATTM.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS ATMOSPHERE SET UP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST WITH CAPES TO 3000
J/KG...LIS TO -10...AND WIND SHEAR TO 30 M/S. CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE MORNING IN THE EAST...WHILE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST.
FOR SATURDAY UPPER TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO
WYOMING ALLOWING EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
CURVATURE OF SYSTEM WILL SLOW MOVEMENT DOWN KEEPING SHOWERS GOING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN
THE EAST AS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT. MODELS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MILES CITY PROGGED TO
GET THREE INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING...THIS IS PROBABLY A BIT OVER DONE
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT STILL EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING ACROSS THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON
PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODELS ALL CONSISTENT ON BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE AVN WAS BRINGING A WEAK
WAVE OVER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND PRODUCING MID LEVEL OMEGA OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WITH BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUELCH CONVECTION. LARGE
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN AND HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMPHREY

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/081 061/078 055/084 059/088 062/091 064/091 064/091
    47/T    74/W    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 057/077 055/075 049/081 054/085 057/087 059/087 059/087
    46/T    42/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 063/083 063/079 055/085 058/089 060/092 062/092 062/092
    47/T    76/W    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 065/086 064/078 057/084 061/089 064/092 066/092 066/092
    64/T    77/W    42/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 065/086 064/078 060/086 061/089 063/092 065/092 065/092
    66/T    77/W    40/E    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 064/085 062/077 057/085 059/087 062/090 064/090 064/090
    77/T    88/W    42/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 060/083 063/078 054/084 054/086 057/088 059/088 059/088
    68/T    86/W    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 2:35 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Rosebud55 min
Jun 21, 3:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Treasure56 min
Jun 21, 5:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZRosebud60 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.