Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
210 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. ETA AND AVN
REMAIN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER IN POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE THE TRIGGER
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. GOOD LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM
UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...WILL COMBINE TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS
WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ABOVE 6000 FEET
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT ANY SNOW AMOUNTS
TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE
DAY. 700 MB LOW STAYS NORTH OF THE BILLINGS FORECAST AREA OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ROTATING ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
AND EVENING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FOR
A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURE. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
BOTH DAYS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
UPPER LOW FINALLY PUSHING OUT OF REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS GOOD WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE UPPER LOW
AND WAVE PUSHING THROUGH CWA. WILL COOL WEDNESDAY TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES AS MIXING FROM 700MB YIELDS LOWER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. AFTER LOW PUSHES OUT OF AREA UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
RESULTING IN WARMUP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NEW AVN BRINGS IN NEXT
UPPER LOW QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL MENTION TWENTY POPS FOR ENTIRE
CWA AS QUICKER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AREA. JZ

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/060 046/059 045/069 049/072 054/078 055/079 056/078
    74/W    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
LVM 038/055 041/054 043/068 047/070 052/075 053/076 054/074
    74/W    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
HDN 045/061 045/060 045/071 048/074 054/080 055/081 055/079
    74/W    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
MLS 050/066 049/062 045/069 049/072 054/078 055/079 057/078
    74/T    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
4BQ 051/068 048/063 043/070 048/073 052/079 053/080 056/079
    74/T    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
BHK 049/067 048/060 043/068 047/071 052/077 053/078 055/077
    74/T    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B
SHR 045/067 044/061 043/069 047/071 052/078 053/079 054/077
    74/T    43/W    23/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    22/B

.BYZ...
MT...TORNADO WATCH SOUTHEAST MT TIL 7 PM MDT. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
     MONDAY JUNE 10TH FOR PARTS OF PARK AND CARBON COUNTIES.
WY...NONE.