Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Billings, MT
NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 5, 2002, 7:09 PM MDT for Yellowstone County, Montana. It was in force for 66 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 5, 2002, 7:09 PM MDT (01:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 5, 2002, 8:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- NWS Billings, MT
- Area
- Whole counties
County Yellowstone County, MT
The radar
The Billings radar (KBLX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 7:15 PM MDT | Hail 0.75 | Laurel, MT |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Riverton, WY (KRIW), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 319 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -89 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3032 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 5, 2:25 PM MDT, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 2:25 PM MDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
225 PM MDT THU SEP 05 2002
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THE ETA HAS
INITIALIZED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 5 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF
ACTUAL POSITION. WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL INITIATE
TONIGHTS ROUND OF CONVECTION...LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT BUT STILL THINK MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRY
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
BRINGING A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.
MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY 9 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA PROGGED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE DISTURBANCE RIDING UP OVER THE
FRONT. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE 700 THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED...THIS MAY
CAP OFF ALL BUT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE LIMITED THERE AS WELL. STILL WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST WHILE WEST AND CENTRAL WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. COINCIDENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT IN
MOST AREAS SO HAVE BUMPED DOWN HIGHS BUT COULD STILL GET A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH THAT INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOIST
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ALOFT AND JET ENERGY
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. HARD TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC TRIGGERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIMITING HEATING POTENTIAL. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
CANADA...ECMWF...MRF...AND THE NEW AVN INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN OUT WEST TO MOVE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHEN THIS WILL TAKE PLACE...
HOWEVER...AS WELL AS WHEN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. CANADA ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST UNCERTAINTY THIS
PACKAGE AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE DISCOUNTED THEM. THE CANADA MODEL
HAS BEEN THE FASTEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS WELL. THE NEWER
MRF...WHILE UNCERTAINTIES ARE THERE...IS BETTER ENSEMBLE WISE. THE NEW
AVN RUN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER...HOWEVER. AM LEANING TOWARD THE NEW AVN WITH ITS
SIMILARITIES TO THE ECMWF. THUS...THE GREATER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBILITIES LOOK LIKE THEY WOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY. WILL HAVE HIGH
SCATTERED POPS THEN. TUESDAY DURING THE DAY LOOKS DRY...AS DOES THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ADVANCING OVER THE
AREA AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOT YET INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
HERE. AT FIRST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
ADVANCES AND PASSES OVER THE AREA. THEN THESE SHOULD MODERATE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. CHB
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/084 054/080 054/076 050/071 044/071 049/076 051/079
36/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
LVM 051/078 049/074 047/071 045/067 040/069 045/073 049/076
36/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
HDN 060/084 052/082 052/078 048/073 042/073 047/078 049/081
26/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
MLS 059/086 053/082 055/081 053/076 047/075 050/080 052/082
24/T 43/T 33/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 063/092 058/083 055/082 052/077 046/076 049/081 051/083
23/T 33/T 33/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
BHK 061/086 054/083 055/080 051/077 044/073 047/077 050/080
24/T 43/T 33/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 050/088 053/081 050/076 047/071 041/069 045/075 048/078
26/T 64/T 44/T 44/T 30/B 00/B 00/B
.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.The office that day
Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 7:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BYZ | Yellowstone | 66 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.