Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Billings, MT

August 4, 2002Powder River County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 4, 2002, 6:59 PM MDT for Powder River County, Montana. It was in force for 61 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 4, 2002, 6:59 PM MDT (00:59 UTC)
Expired: Aug 4, 2002, 8:00 PM MDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Whole counties

County Powder River County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 237 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 4, 7:01 PM MDT	Thunderstorm Wind 60 E	Biddle, MT	60 mph wind gust

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 4, 4:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 126 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 600 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 4, 2:11 PM MDT, 4 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 2:11 PM MDT, 4 hours 48 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
211 PM MDT SUN AUG 04 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE EXTENT AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION AND MAX TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ACROSS IN IDAHO AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. WILL MENTION SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA.
LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS DRY AIR NOSES IN.
TOMORROW DRY AIRMASS PUSHES FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. BEST
INSTABILITY IN THE EAST AND NORTH AND WILL PUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
HERE. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. WILL PUT MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...INTO THE 80S AND 90S.

DRY AIRMASS PUSHES FURTHER NORTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
KEEPING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED TO FAR EAST AND NORTH. TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM. JZ

THE AVN SWINGS A COLD FRONT TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ETA WAS SLOWER
WITH IT AND DOES NOT DRAG IT THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BELIEVE THE ETA SINCE THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WOULD HOLD UP THE SURFACE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OUT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL PUT LOW POPS
BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LEAVE SCATTERED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PROBLEMS STEM
FROM TIMING AND DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
INSTEAD OF THE TROUGH KICKING NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF WITH THE LOW NOT EXITING THE EAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST AVN WAS STAYING WITH THIS THEME AND IN FACT
MOVING THINGS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE CLOSED LOW FARTHER SOUTH. FLOW DOES
TURN ZONAL...BUT NOT UNTIL SUNDAY. MIDNIGHT CREW INSERTING POPS ON
THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL NEED TO STRETCH POPS INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LEAD TO COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY THEN CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS. HUMPHREY

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/091 062/093 059/087 055/085 052/081 052/084 055/086
    42/T    20/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
LVM 052/088 055/086 051/082 049/081 047/077 047/082 050/084
    42/T    20/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
HDN 057/093 060/094 057/090 055/087 050/082 050/085 053/087
    40/G    00/G    02/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
MLS 063/094 065/092 062/093 058/088 055/082 055/085 058/087
    43/T    42/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
4BQ 061/095 063/095 061/093 057/088 055/082 055/085 058/087
    42/T    30/G    02/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
BHK 064/090 064/090 059/091 056/087 053/081 053/084 056/086
    43/T    42/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U
SHR 058/094 058/094 055/089 051/086 047/081 047/085 050/087
    30/G    00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    30/B    00/U

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 4, 6:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Wheatland	58 min
Aug 4, 6:18 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Custer	57 min
Aug 4, 8:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Powder River	66 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.