Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Billings, MT

July 27, 2002Musselshell County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2002, 3:23 PM MDT for Musselshell County, Montana. It was in force for 67 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2002, 3:23 PM MDT (21:23 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2002, 4:30 PM MDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Whole counties

County Musselshell County, MT

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 27, 3:45 PM MDT	Hail 0.75	Musselshell, MT
Jul 27, 3:50 PM MDT	Hail 0.75	Melstone, MT

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1136 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

518 
WUUS55 KBYZ 272123
SVRBYZ
MTC065-272230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
323 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 323 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF MELSTONE...OR ABOUT 22 MILES
  EAST OF ROUNDUP...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   MELSTONE BY 335 PM MDT.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 1:54 PM MDT, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 1:54 PM MDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
154 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...
AT PRESENT...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF BILLINGS
COUNTY WARNING AREA. STORM HISTORY INDICATES HEAVY RAIN AND 1/2 INCH
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. AREA REMAINS UNSTABLE AND EXPECT TO SEE STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE ACTIVITY THEN MOVES INTO THE SE CORNER. OVERALL TREK OF THESE
STORMS ARE FAVORING AVN SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF BILLINGS COUNTY WARNING AREA WHICH IS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM
THE 12Z ETA MODEL WITH SHUNTS THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. SINCE 12Z ETA
MODEL HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN AM INCLINED TO TREND
FCST PACKAGE IN LINE WITH AVN MODEL BUT ADJUST FOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL INTO SUNDAY
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS ONLY REACHING ABOUT 582DM. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AND DRYING OUT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY WITH FLOW SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 585-588DM. SFC GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS THREATENING
WINDS TO INCREASE IN/NEAR THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY GOING INTO TUESDAY.
SPRINGER

TUESDAY...DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AVN BRINGS
STRONG SHORT WAVE INTO NORTHERN MONTANA BUT WILL THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BILLINGS FORECAST AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS ARE NOT LINING UP VERY WELL IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO PLACEMENT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA UPPER LOW. AVN...EXT-AVN AND
UKMO HAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA KEEPING A DRY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS MONTANA. ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND MOVES IT SOUTH WHICH SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE AVN
EXT-AVN AND UKMO SOLUTION IN KEEPING A DRY AND POSSIBLE WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BEGIN TO LINE UP WELL ON THURSDAY
WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ALOFT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 10C. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF SC/SE
MT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO FALL ACROSS
MONTANA AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES. RICHMOND

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/080 058/083 059/081 058/083 056/083 056/085 058/080
    41/E    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
LVM 052/080 052/081 055/079 054/081 052/078 052/082 054/077
    40/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
HDN 056/082 055/085 057/083 056/084 054/085 054/087 056/082
    42/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
MLS 059/082 056/085 059/083 058/085 056/084 056/087 058/082
    62/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
4BQ 057/081 057/084 058/082 058/084 056/083 056/086 058/081
    42/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
BHK 056/080 054/083 055/081 056/083 054/080 054/084 056/079
    62/T    30/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E
SHR 055/080 054/084 055/082 055/083 053/081 053/087 055/082
    42/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    03/T    33/T    30/E

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 1:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Sweet Grass	62 min
Jul 27, 1:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Stillwater	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.