Special Marine Warning 87, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2002

WRN NY STEAMING UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BULK OF STRONG
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. INITIAL AREA
DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL NY MIDDAY AND HAS GONE SEVERE OVER ERN NY...BUT
NO CONCERN TO US. ON OUR OTHER FLANK...WEAKENING FRONT HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND EXTENDS FROM SRN ONT TO SRN MICH AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
US THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS FIRED UP NICELY OVER ONTARIO...BUT
STRONG SW WIND HAS SET UP LAKE SHADOW BUF AREA AND IS INHIBITING
MOVEMENT INTO NIAG FRONTIER. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG LK BREEZE
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LAKE OVER SRN ERIE/WYOMING COS AND THIS SHOULD
FILL IN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS GEN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ERN LK
ONT REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY S AND E OF CLEVE-ERIE WHICH WILL MOVE UP INTO SRN TIER.
SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 POP SCATD TSTMS FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING.
BUF AREA MAY ESCAPE COMPLETELY...ALTHOUGH AS BREEZE WEAKENS...
LEFTOVER ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT IN FROM SRN ONT EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CANNOT RULE OUT ROGUE LK ERIE ENHANCEMENT OF ANYTHING OVERNIGHT
AGAIN AS LAKE SWITCHES ROLES SO WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN HERE TOO.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SCORCHER...PERHAPS A DEG OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY WITH A BIT MORE SUN AND 850S OF 18-19C. WLL GO A BIT OVER
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN TOO LOW OF LATE...LOW 90S ROC AREA...NR 90
ELSEWHERE...85-90 BUF/ART. THEN IT GETS INTERESTING. WE HAD BEEN
MAINLY CONCERNED WITH THE LONG ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY...BUT ALL MODELS NOW BRING IT THROUGH A BIT EARLIER WITH VERY
FEW DYNAMICS AND ALMOST NO PRECIP (AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE THIS
SUMMER). HOWEVER...WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHORT WAVE OVER
TENN VALLEY WHICH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NE INTO PA SAT NT. ETA/AVN
KEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BORDER BUT NGM SURGES COPIOUS RAINFALL
INTO WRN NY SAT EVE. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS LATE IN DAY SAT
SRN TIER AND LV NRN COUNTIES DRY. WILL INCREASE TO 60 POPS ALL AREAS
SAT NT AND WILL NOT RESTRICT TIME AS IT MAY START EARLY IN EVENING.

SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN LESS HUMID WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. CANNOT GO DRY WITH SUCH A FRONT...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FROM
30 WEST TO 40 EAST AND SPEED UP A BIT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON IN WEST.

EXTENDED...NEXT WEEK GENERALLY LOOKS GREAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND +10
850S ASSURE A NEAR PERFECT MONDAY WITH M-U 70S AND TDS IN 50S.
PLEASANT WX SHOULD HOLD THRU WED WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND WED. AVN
RIPPLES A LOW TO OUR SOUTH MON NT BUT SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK
FRONT WED NT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...DECIDED TO LEAVE DRY. THURS/FRI
SHOULD SEE DRY SEASONABLE WX AS HIGH SETTLES OVER GRT LAKES.

HYDROWISE...VIRTUALLY NO RAIN YET TODAY...BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD
DROP 0.5+ NEXT FEW HRS...BASINWIDE AVERAGES SHOULD STAY UNDER 0.25
INCH.

THATS IT FROM THE BUF THIS AFTERNOON. WRKZONES BY 330. FINALS BEFORE
4. TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

MCLAUGHLIN