Special Marine Warning 85, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
255 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

FAIRLY QUIET EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NY SO FAR AS
CLOUDS SLOWLY MIX OUT TO INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST AREAS.
INITIAL S/W HAS LIFTED WELL N AND E OF AREA...BUT NEXT IMPULSE
CLEARLY NOTED ON WV LOOP OVER NRN OHIO ADVANCING NE AND IGNITING
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT UP INTO SW NY ATTM. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NE ACROSS WRN NY SO
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SCATD TSTMS THRU EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
CONCERN IS WITH TIMING AND RISK OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 48-60 HOURS UNTIL STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS LAKES
AND DRAGS A DECENT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY.

UNTIL THEN...WE REMAIN IN MUGGY TROPICAL SOUPY AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH
MODELS AGREE IN TAKING AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND VORTICITY A
LITTLE TO SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE CHC
OF ACTIVITY EACH DAY. WILL KEEP 40 POPS IN TONIGHT ALL AREAS AND
FOCUS MAINLY DURING EVENING. AIRMASS DRIES OUT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY...ESP
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO LOOK FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY...BUT
850S STILL IN 17-18 C RANGE AND CAPES RISE TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH
ASSOC LIS IN -5 RANGE. EXPECT DECENT SW FLOW SO LIMITED CONVECTION
MAY FIRE ALONG LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND ACROSS SRN TIER...WILL GO
WITH 30 POPS NORTH AND 40 POPS SOUTH. IMMED BUF AREA SHOULD ESCAPE
IN SHADOW. TEMPS WILL BE IN 85-90 RANGE MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN.

ETA HINTS AT ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING NE FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO PA FRI
NT...AVN A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP 30 POP IN
SRN TIER/FINGER LAKES FRI NT...20 POP AND NO MENTION NORTH. SAT A
BIT DRIER AND MORE CAPPED...BUT STILL A BIT UNSTABLE. WILL HOLD A 30
POP SRN TIER/FINGER LAKES BUT LEAVE NRN COUNTIES DRY. 850S OF 18-20
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER 90+ MAX ACROSS GEN VALLEY E TO SYR AND FZY.

FINALLY SOME RELIEF ON THE HORIZON. 12Z AVN A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER
AND MORE DIFFUSE WITH SUNDAYS FROPA THAN 06Z RUN...BUT STILL BRINGS
IT ACROSS WEST BY NOON AND EAST LATER IN DAY. WLL LEAVE LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES...AND GO MAINLY THRU MIDDAY WEST AND PM EAST.

COOLER DRIER MORE REFRESHING AIR MON/TUES...850S +9 MON AND +11
TUES SUPPORT M-U 70S...SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR RETURNS WED. MRF HINTS
AT SOME WARM FROPA SHOWER THREAT BUT ECMWF AND UKMET DO NOT...WILL
LEAVE WED DRY AND BRING CHC SHOWERS IN THURS ALONG WITH MORE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY.

HYDROWISE...ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT BASINWIDE AVERAGES SHOULD HOLD 0.25 INCH OR LESS.

THATS ABOUT IT FROM THE BUF THIS AFTERNOON. WRKZONES AVAIL BY 330.
FINALS ON STREET BY 350. TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

MCLAUGHLIN