Special Marine Warning 77, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR MESOSCALE DISCO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2002

A SWATH OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM YYZ AND WESTERN LK ONTARIO
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS CENT OHIO CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NEW YORK STATE.

IR SAT LOOP W/ 15 MIN LIGHTNING SHOWS THAT THE NORTH END OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BASICALLY FROM LONG POINT NORTHWARD...IS WEAKENING.
ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES IN THIS REGION ARE BECOMING HARDER TO
FIND...TOPS ARE WARMING...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BECOMING MORE
AND MORE POSITIVE CHARGED IN NATURE. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY IS MORE STRATIFORM RAIN IN NATURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SOUTH OF LONG POOINT...THE LIGHTNING IS STILL DOMINANTLY NEGATIVE
AND SHOWS MORE DENSE CLUSTERS. THE REFLECTIVITY IS ALSO MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH KBUF AND KCLE RADARS.

THE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WHERE RUC
BASED LAPS DISPLAYS ARE SHOWING CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA (WHERE THE CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST).

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIL DE
JOUR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 FOR SEVERE.

.BUF...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
       NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021.

RSH