Special Marine Warning 71, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

OUR REGION IN A BIT OF A LULL ATTM...AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FIRED ALONG NUMEROUS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
IN THE STEAMY 95/75 TYPE AIRMASS. NUMEROUS SEVERE REPORTS (13)
RECEIVED..SEE BUFLSRBUF FOR DETAILS. AS USUAL...METRO BUF TOTALLY
SPARED DUE TO THE STABILIZING SW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. OUR ATTENTION
NOW TURNS TOWARD THE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF TSRAS EXTENDING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO DTW
REGION AT 01Z..ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING TREND EVIDENT PAST HOUR.
THESE SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER THOUGH AS THEY MARCH EASTWARD INTO OUR
SOUPY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN L-M 70S AND CAPES STILL NR
2000J/KG...BUT DYNAMICS LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE. LAKE SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH SHOWERS/TSTSM ALL ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AND ADD A
TIMING...AFT 1 AM NIAG-BUF AND AFT 2 AM JHW-ROC-ART AND SOUTHEAST.

AS NOTED IN PREV FINE DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A DOUBLE FRONT OF
SORTS...INITIAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THRU BUF AROUND 10-11Z AND FINGER
LAKES BY ABOUT 14-15Z...BUT SECONDARY FRONT SEVERAL HOURS
LATER...AROUND MIDDAY BUF AND DURING PM CNTRL SRN TIER. THIS ALREADY
EVIDENT IN MICH WITH STILL FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS (TDS 60-65) BEHIND
FIRST FRONT...AND A SECONDARY AREA OF CLOUD AND SHOWERS NEAR THE SOO
FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY WINDS. SO WILL TWEAK FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO
LEAVE THREAT OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING BUF-ROC AND
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SRN TIER...AND DELAY CLEARING A BIT LONGER. AS
IS TYPICAL THIS SUMMER...COOLER AIR WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED.
BUT...IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AND PROVIDE US WITH A STRETCH OF
FINE COMFORTABLE WX FROM LATE TUES THRU THURS.

CLIMO/HYDRO...ROCS 95 AND BUFS 91 HOTTEST OF YEAR TODAY AND HEAT
INDICES REACHED 104 AND 100 RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS NONE...LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH ONT/WAYNE/LEWIS COS. BASINWIDE QPF POTENTIAL OF 0.5 INCH
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL 1 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. BUF AND ROC STILL
PARCHED SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH 0.41 AND 0.19 INCH RESPECTIVELY.

THATS ABOUT IT FROM THE MUGGY BUF THIS EVENING. UPDATED WRKZONES
GONE. FINALS OUT BY 10. TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

MCLAUGHLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO, NY
802 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 PM    FARMINGTON                NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   ONTARIO                        TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0550 PM    KIANTONE                  NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   CHAUTAUQUA                     TREES DOWN REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0620 PM    ADAMS                     NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   JEFFERSON                      TREES AND WIRES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 PM    PULASKI                   NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   OSWEGO                         TREES AND WIRES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM    BLACK RIVER               NY   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/22/02   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0640 PM    CASTORLAND                NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   LEWIS                          TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTER

SFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO, NY
837 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0640 PM    NATURAL BRIDGE            NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   JEFFERSON                      TREES AND WIRES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0700 PM    CROGHAN                   NY   WIND DAMAGE
07/22/02   LEWIS                          NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES
                                          DOWN REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

SFM