Special Marine Warning 59, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1014 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ***

THE LAST IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF SULTRY DAYS IS ABOUT TO
COME TO AN END AFTER TODAY...BUT NOT BEFORE OUR JUICY AIRMASS SPAWNS
SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR DOMINANT MID-SUMMER RIDGE OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED
AND SETTLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW
A COOL FRONT TO SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT IS ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER...THE AIRMASS WILL DEFINITELY BE
DRIER WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY. MORE ON THAT LATER...

AS MENTIONED OUR AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE JUICY WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF
1.5. THIS AIRMASS CURRENTLY CONTAINS MORE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAN YOU CAN SHAKE A STICK AT...WITH FORCING ON THE WAY FROM THE
BEFORE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS.

A 80-90KT H25 JET RUNNING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WILL OFFER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR OUR STORMS TODAY...WITH THE FAVORED RR QUAD
OF THE JET PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS JET WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
OUR REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...HELPING TO WORK OVER AN
AIRMASS THAT SHOULD INCLUDE CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. OUR AIRMASS WILL
NEED A FEW HOURS OF SUN THIS MORNING TO RIPEN...THEN COMBINATION OF
BEFORE MENTIONED JET DYNAMICS...OLD BOUNDARIES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK HAND IN HAND. NEWEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SWATH OF MOD-STRONG OMEGA VALUES AND 1200 J/KG CAPES FOR MID
AFTERNOON.

UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH...OUR FLOW WILL BE STRONGER ALOFT.
THIS WILL KEEP THOSE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (+1.5 PWS) MOVING ALONG
AND HELP SUPPRESS THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS. THIS OF
COURSE WILL NOT APPLY TO STORMS THAT TRAIN ALONG LK BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.

THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR OOZING INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND TO PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY O SUN. TDS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
50S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK...AND THAT SHOULD MAKE THE OUTDOORS
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

WE HEAD BACK INTO ANOTHER SOUPY AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAYS...AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR LATE DAY TRWS.

.BUF...NONE.

RSH/WCH