Special Marine Warning 55, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2002

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND
OSWEGO COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE IS GENERATING A SOLID LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATER THIS EVENING.

THE REST OF THE PRVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS.

BOTH THE AVIATION AND MESOETA KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTIES AND CELLS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT THIS
TIME, SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.

THE MESOETA PERSISTS WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND THE GENESEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, WHILE IT IS MUCH WEAKER ON THE
AVIATION MODEL.  WITH THE BETTER DEFINITION OF THE MESOETA, WILL PUT
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FROM ROCHESTER WEST.

ON TUESDAY THE AVIATION WANTS TO BRING A BROADER SHORT WAVE ACROSS
WITH SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, BUT THE FINER RESOLUTION OF THE
MESOETA KEEPS THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH, AND SHOWS IT TO
BE A BIT OF A PAPER TIGER, SO WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
TUESDAY FOR NOW.

IT LOOKS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION, UNTIL THEN IT WILL
BE MAINLY A DIET OF POPCORN.

.BUF...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM NYZ006>008.

TJP