Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2002

COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AND RETURN OVER THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT FUEL BUT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
PERSISTENT RAINS.

THE ETA AND MESOETA HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP...06Z MESOETA HAD LITTLE PRECIP THIS EVENING
AND MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN THE 12Z ETA HAS MOST
RAIN THIS EVENING AND LESSER AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. THE BETTER
SOLUTION SEEMS TO THE AVN...IT BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
EARLY ON SATURDAY. THERE IS LESS SOUTHERLY PUSH TO THE FRONT ON THE
AVN THAN ON THE ETA/MESOETA WHICH WILL KEEP MORE PRECIP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK
TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS PATTERN OF GRAZING BLOWS BY
NORTH TRACKING LOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ONE
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SETTLE DOWN BY FRIDAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE 300-315 PM.

.BUF...NONE.

HIBBERT