Special Marine Warning 45, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
252 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2002

THIS PATTERN IS BECOMING JUST A WEE BIT TIRESOME  WELL STACKED LOW
STILL PROVIDING NECESSARY INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR THE CONTINUED
HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF RAIN OVER PARTS
OF THE FINGER LAKES.  COUPLED WITH YESTERDAYS RAIN OVER WAYNE
COUNTY WE HAVE HAD TO EXTEND THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA.

WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE TONIGHT
BUT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN.

ANOTHER VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
GRUDGINGLY TO THE EAST.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AGAIN BUT
LIMIT WORDING SO IT DOESNT SOUND LIKE AN ALL DAY RAIN.

UPPER LOW MOVES MORE TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS.  MOISTURE FINALLY ON THE DECREASE.  WILL BE
ABLE TO AT LEAST LOWER POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.

CONTINUITY STILL CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  I SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER FLOW STILL CYCLONIC AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIMITED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

FINALLY SOME RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO 12-14C.  WILL KEEP FAIR WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
NOT MENTION PRECIP AGAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

.BUF...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD STATEMENT NYZ003 UNTIL 445 PM
       AND NYZ004 UNTIL 815 PM.

SAGE