Special Marine Warning 41, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH
IS NEAR A KERI-KJHW-KELZ LINE. KBUF VWP PROFILE SHOWING STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING WARM FRONT. STORMS MARGINALLY SEVERE AT
THIS TIME...BUT ONE CELL DID PROMPT WARNING EARLIER. STORMS
EXHIBITING RATHER IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CORES (55-60 DBZ CORES TO 20K
FEET AND 45 TO 50 DBZ CORES ABOVE 25K FEET). MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING...BUT AN ISOLATED THREAT EXIST FOR
SEVERE AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET HELPS TO GENERATE INCREASING
HELICITY VALUES.

SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND HELP WARM FRONT PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...
BEFORE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT...BUT ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH ACTIVE/SEVERE CONVECTION DUE TO
RAIN-COOLED NATURE OF THE AIR (NORTH OF WARM FRONT). UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT VERY MINIMAL AS UPPER TROUGH HANGS WELL WEST OF THE
AREA. WE WILL STILL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS CROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS IS
SUGGESTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK.

COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETELY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COULD HAVE SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SLOW DRYING WILL OCCUR
AS SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY
THURSDAY TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN...BUT GOOD DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BRING CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL..DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

00Z AVN CONTINUING TO SUGGESTING FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY REACHING
AROUND +15C WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.

.BUF...NONE.

TMA