Special Marine Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

HAVE SPENT MORE TIME WITH ADJUSTING FORECAST AND UPDATING SPS ON SPC
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

LOW PRESSURE STORM OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...NOW THOUGHT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SPC HAS UPDATED WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED ALSO FOR CHANGING RAIN
TO SHOWERY WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUT IN FOR ALL COUNTIES OF COURSE
LEANING ON WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HAVE KEPT REST OF AFD AS IS FOR NOW.

FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED LATER TODAY AS MODELS SHOWING SURFACE
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR
18Z POSITIONS NEAR DETROIT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OF EAST TRACK ACROSS
WESTERN NEW BY 00Z TONIGHT. 00Z NGM THE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE MODELS
BRINGING LOW ACROSS ERIE TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. 00Z ETA/AVN/MESOETA
AND MM5 ALL SHOWING LOW WILL TRACK WITHIN A FEW MILES OF BUFFALO...
THEN EAST INTO THE FINGER LAKES. THE MM5 IS THE FARTHEST NORTH...
BRINGING LOW RIGHT ALONG THE THRUWAY (JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO).

IN A CASE LIKE THIS...NO CLEAR CUT SOLUTION IS APPEARING SO WILL
SUGGEST A PATH SIMILAR TO MESOETA/ETA/AVN WHICH BRINGS LOW TO OR JUST
SOUTH OF BUFFALO. THIS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING IN COOL SECTOR. WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY GET INTO
WARM SECTOR BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORMING ACROSS OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA TO WARRANT SPC SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER...AIR MASS TOO STABLE FURTHER EAST FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

IF TRACK OF LOW DIFFERS JUST A FEW MILES FROM MODEL FORECASTS RESULT
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

ONCE LOW PASSES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
COULD CHANGE TO SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING AS COLDER AIR
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. GREATEST THREAT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

VERY CHILL AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW -5C THROUGH THE DAY.

.BUF...NONE.

SPS UPDATED FOR MODERATE RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SLIGHT RISK MOSTLY EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPTT OSWEGO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

TMA

NYZ019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
905 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR

NYZ019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
915 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON OR OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON OR OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON OR OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON OR OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-282100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO EVENING EXCEPT OSWEGO,JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME TODAY AND EVENING.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

KEEP INFORMED AND MONITOR LATER FORECASTS BY TUNING INTO YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BUF.

EGR