Special Marine Warning 101, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

ISSUED UPDATE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY OVR CNY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
REMOVED EARLY PERIODS FOR THE REST OF THE ZNS. ALSO INCREASED WNDS A
BIT TO 10-20 RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH FRNTAL PASSAGE. WNDS SHLD
SUBSIDE LTR TNGT.

EARLIER AFD FOLLOWS...

SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE JUST BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. AIR MASS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...
KEEPING CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES NO LOWER THAN
-2. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS ACROSS IT. CAN NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP POPS IN SCATTERED CATEGORY WESTERN SECTIONS
...WITH A BETTER LIKELIHOOD ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS WITH MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THAT RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN MODEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS BY 06Z.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.

.BUF...NONE.

TMA