Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Brownsville, TX

October 20, 2002Hidalgo County, Texas

NWS Brownsville, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 20, 2002, 8:00 PM CDT for Hidalgo County, Texas. It was in force for 90 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Oct 20, 2002, 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC)
Expired
Oct 20, 2002, 9:30 PM CDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
NWS Brownsville, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Hidalgo County, TX

The radar

The Brownsville radar (KBRO), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Oct 20, 9:20 PM CDTThunderstorm Wind 75 ERaymondville, TXThunderstorm winds produced damage to several mobile home awnings and roofs in the Gulf View RV Park in Raymondville. A few small trees were uprooted while larger trees had limbs severed. A storm survey found evidence of winds to 75 mph.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Brownsville Intl, TX (KBRO), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brownsville Intl, TX at 00:00Z on 2002-10-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2087 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brownsville Intl, TX at 00:00Z on 2002-10-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2087 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
777 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

220 
WUUS54 KBRO 210100
SVRBRO
TXC215-210145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELSA...OR 7 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF EDINBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
  AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE 
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY 
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2638 9822 2624 9817 2637 9793 2652 9807

PHILO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 20, 2:50 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 20, 2:50 PM CDT, 5 hours 10 minutes before
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2002

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CONTINUED ON ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND IS CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM AR THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LA THROUGH THE WEST GULF OF MEX WATERS AND BACK
ON SHORE NEAR BRO.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY...
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM AND SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
AID IN UVV TONIGHT. PLUS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 IN...ADEQUATE
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVN AND ETA BOTH HAVE PRECIP. TONIGHT FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER...BY
MONDAY THE ETA KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH. THE AVN HAS
STRONGER OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS MORE
PRECIP. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS GREATEST UVV
SHIFTS FROM DEPSOTX TO LA BY MON. NIGHT. MODELS TRENDING DRIER FOR
TUES...WILL ADJUST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.

.EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REACHING TEXAS BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL REACH DEPSOTX IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WEEK SEEMS RELATIVELY DRY.

.MARINE DISCUSSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK...AS MOIST GULF AIR IS DESTABILIZED BY CONDITIONS ALOFT.  THE
AVN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SEAS
MODERATE AS WELL.  NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  BY MID
WEEK A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...AND THE
AVN THEN DEVELOPS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EAST TEXAS LATE
IN THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES STILL APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO EE 072/085 072/086 072 50/30/20/20/00
HRL EE 070/085 070/086 071 50/30/20/20/00
MFE EE 070/086 070/087 070 50/30/20/20/00
RGC EE 069/086 068/088 068 50/30/20/20/00
SPI EE 076/081 074/080 075 30/20/20/20/00

SYNOPTIC...63
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...54

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 20, 5:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
TXZ248>257-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME OVER HIDALGO...WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTIES. EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Brownsville, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 20, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBROCameron82 min
Oct 20, 8:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBROHidalgo, Willacy44 hr
Oct 20, 9:05 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningBROWillacy3 hr
Oct 20, 9:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningBROHidalgo3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.