Special Marine Warning 41, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...ANOTHER 12-18 HRS OF CONVECTION THEN RETURN TO DRIER WX FOR
THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (CURRENT THRU SAT)...
PESKY FRNTL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH LOTS OF
ACTIVITY DVLPNG UPSTREAM.  AIR MASS HAS NOT CHANGED AND EXPECT
SIMILAR SVR THRESHOLDS TO WORK AGAIN THIS AFTN.  CELLS W/VIL >50
PRODUCED SVR HAIL/WND DAMAGE THIS AM IN MOST ORGANIZED CELL WHICH DID
SHOW MINI SUPERCELL CHARACTER DURING LIFE CYCLE.

MDLS BRING ACTION THRU FA BETWEEN 19Z-06Z THEN GRDLY BRING IT TO AN
END.  FOG BANK ALNG S CST AND PATCHES IN ERN WATERS WL CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE CSTL AREAS INTO THE OVRNGT.

TRUE CLRNG/DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY SPREAD IN FROM THE N/W SAT MORNING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E.  MOS GDNC SIM ON MINS TNGT AND MAXES SAT...
PLAYING THE COOLER COASTL MAXES FOR SAT E CSL MASS GIVEN 10KT NE
FLOW DURING THE DAY.

DRV

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...
WX NIL INTO MON AS LARGE SFC HI SLWLY MOVES OFFSHR AND RETURN SW FLO
TAKES OVR ONCE AGAIN.  XPCT HEAT/HUMIDITY TO INCRS MON AND WL CONT TO
GO ABV GUID TMPS.  BASED UPON 12Z AVN...NXT CDFNT MAKES IT INTO ERN
NY/PA TUE EVE AND WITH MOST OF ENERGY AND HIER LL MOISTR STAYING N
OF FA PREFER TO DROP MNTN OF PCPN FM FCST TIL TUE NGT/WED AS FNT
ACTUALLY MOVES THRU.  CUD BE SOME ISOLD SHRA BUT CERTAINLY NOT
WORTH MNTN ATTM.  NOT BUYING INTO STRENGTH OF AVN WND FIELD WHICH
IS TYPICALLY OVRDONE ANYWAY...SPCLY IN SW FLO...BUT WL INDCT
MARGINAL SCA IN CWF FOR TUE/WED.

NO BIG DISAGREEMENTS WITH GFS WED-FRI.  CDFNT SHUD BE EXITING SE NEW
ENG WED AFTN...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS WED FOR MOST OF FA (HIEST SE).
OTRW ANOTHER DRYING TREND LATE WED INTO FRI AS FNT IS SUPPRESSED
FARTHER S TO MIDATLC AND SFC HI BLDS ACRS SRN NEW ENG.  STILL GOING
ABV MEX GUID...SPCLY AWAY FM OCEAN INFLUENCE WHERE M80S APPEAR LKLY
BY END OF WEEK.  INTERESTG TO NOTE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DVLP DEEP H5
CUTOFF NEAR HUDBAY BY END OF WEEKEND AND DROPS IT DOWN TWD GRTLKS.
WHILE THIS IS AN IDEA NOT TOTALLY BOUGHT INTO YET AS IT ISNT
SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLES...WELL NEED TO SEE IF FUTURE RUNS CONT
TREND.

JWD

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

CTZ002-MAZ008>011-192100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

AT 410 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL DEVELOPING
OVER AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF HARTFORD.

BESIDES HARTFORD...THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST HARFORD...
AVON...BURLINGTON...FARMINGTON...CANTON AND BLOOMFIELD WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN.  WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

DELLICARPINI
THOMPSON

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