Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT MON JUN 03 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A SEVERE EVENING AND A SOGGY
NIGHT ACROSS NRN COLO. DECENT LIFT IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE STATE
ATTM AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS NOW LOCATED
OVER CNTRL UT AND SOUTH INTO NRN AZ. NEW 18Z DEN U/A SOUNDINGS FROM
IHOP PROJECT SHOWING INCR INSTABILTY IN MID LVLS AS SFC MOISTURE
HOLDS IN FROM BRISK SFC NORTHEASTERLIES. DIV-Q GRIDS HAVE AN
EXTENDED PD OF LIFT OVR THE ERN PLAINS FROM CURRENT THROUGH EARLY
WED. STRONGEST JET LVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER CNTRL NM
THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER UPSLOPE AND GOOD LOW LVL MOISTURE ON THE
PLAINS SHD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE FCST FOR LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD CAPE VALUES EVEN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PD AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL FOR SUSTAINED INSTABILITY UNDER
TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS SHD COOL DOWN 6-10 DEGC TO THE 1-3 DEGC RNG BY
TUE AFTN. MESOETA WET BULB ZERO LVL IS SLIGHTLY HIR THAT YDYS RUN.
THIS WOULD PUT THE SNOW LVL ARND 9500 TO 10000 FT FOR TUE MORNING
AND THEN A LITTLE LOWER FOR WED MORNING BUT PCPN SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END BY THEN. WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO DETERMINE EXACT END OF
PCPN AND MID LVL TEMPS. UPSLOPE UP TO 650MB CONTINUES AND EVEN
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY INTO TUE AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING TUE EVE. PCPN IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH CLDS
DECREASING BY WED MORN. THIS WOULD MATCH WITH THE DIV-Q GRADIENT
NEAR 06Z WED WITH SUBSIDENCE ENSUING BY MIDDAY. COOL SFC TEMPS
SHOULD MAKE FOR A STABLE DAY AND MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS UPPER RIDGE
BCMS MOSTLY IN CONTROL BY LATE WED. 700MB FLOW BEGINS A WESTERLY
COMPONENT AFTER 18Z WED UNDER FURTHER SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUES INTO
THUR. SOUTHEASTERLIES DVLOP AT THE SFC BY THURS AFTN ACCORDING TO
GFS WITH THETA-E INCR OVER HIR TRRN. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS BUT WILL
START WITH ISLD POPS FOR THUR AS TEMPS REBOUND.

LONG TERM: RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN FRI WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON THE PLAINS AND THETA-E RIDGE NOSING BACK INTO NRN COLO.
BROAD TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVR STATE SAT WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL
RHS DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY BEHINDS THIS FRONT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE COLO ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR TSTORMS EACH
DAY IN EXTENDED DUE TO NORHWESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAVES IN THE
FLOW.    FREDIN

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-032000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1000 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD MOVED BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN ITS
WAKE.  IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND
NOON AND ALONG A BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST OF DENVER THAT EXTENDED
NORTH TOWARDS FORT MORGAN...AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CASTLE ROCK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST...AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...FROM JUST EAST OF DENVER TO NEAR
CASTLE ROCK...THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 12 PM.

THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ABOVE 9500 FEET.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

COOPER

COZ030>051-032100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1230 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT 12 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING ALONG MONUMENT RIDGE SOUTH OF DENVER.  A BOUNDARY THAT WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF DENVER...HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH 4 PM.

AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND CASTLE ROCK NORTH TO FORT
COLLINS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST...SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A
WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2 PM.

THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ABOVE 9500 FEET.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

COOPER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
233 PM MDT MON JUN 03 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 02 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    CEDAR POINT               CO   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   LINCOLN

RAY

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT MON JUN 03 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 02 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    CEDAR POINT               CO   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   ELBERT

0243 PM    1 N CEDAR POINT           CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   ELBERT

0250 PM    1 SSE PARKER              CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   DOUGLAS

RAY

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT MON JUN 03 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 03 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    CEDAR POINT               CO   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   ELBERT

0243 PM    1 N CEDAR POINT           CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   ELBERT

0250 PM    1 SSE PARKER              CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/03/02   DOUGLAS

RAY