Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
307 PM MDT THU AUG 22 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENTLY...RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES ARE
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT BEST.  DEW POINTS ARE IN
40S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH A FEW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  CURRENT ACARS SOUNDS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE PRETTY
UNSTABLE.  SOME LOWER 50S DEW POINTS WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
GIVE 2000 PLUS JOULES OF CAPE.  LOOKING AT ALL THE AREA RADARS AND
SATELLITE PICTURES...CANT FIND ANY APPRECIABLE BOUNDARIES OR
CONVERGENCE AREAS.  POPS IN THE 10% TO 20% RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE.
SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A TAD
WARMER THEN THIS MORNINGS READINGS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DISCUSSION:   BY FRIDAY...GRIDS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTER MIGRATING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO.  SOME
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FROM THE STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN OREGON PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  IN CORRELATION...GRIDS SHOW A LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.  BY 18Z ON SATURDAY FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND A 80-90 KNOT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THETA-E/CAPE/DEW POINT GRIDS SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EAST BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  BOTH DAYS
HAVE PRETTY DECENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ON THE CROSS SECTIONS...BUT
FRIDAYS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER.  LOOKING AT SUNDAY...AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CROSS SECTION SHOW PRETTY
STEEP LAPSE RATES.  FOR POPS...WILL MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO CURRENT
PACKAGE AND WILL PUT SOME ISOLATED POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW A 1-2.5 C WARM-UP FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...
WITH A 1-4 C COOLER DOWN FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS...THEN A REBOUND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY OF 1-3 C.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF COLORADO IN
NEW MEXICO...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THAT
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ARE STILL LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF COLORADO THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT IT
WEAKENS.  THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FROM TIME
TO TIME MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM IT.  GRIDS SHOW A LOW
LEVEL SURGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW LATE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE
GRIDS SHOW IT PRETTY DRY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT TO THE NEXT CREW TO
TAKE THE POPS OUT IF NEED BE.   RJK

.DEN...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
608 PM MDT THU AUG 22 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR AUGUST 22 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0608 PM    3 W GENOA                 CO   0.88 HAIL
08/22/02   LINCOLN

RAY