Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
232 PM MDT FRI AUG 9 2002

TONIGHT...WILL PLAN ON EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY TO ENSUE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVR THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A DRY ATMSPR TO THE WEST OF COLO WILL EVENTUALLY DRY THINGS
OUT FURTHER OVR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIP H20 VALS OUT WEST ARE FALL-LIKE WITH READINGS IN THE .30-.50
INCH RANGE AND SFC MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT OVR SOUTHERN WYO. THIS
DRYER SFC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL
SUNDAY.

FOR SATURDAY...ETA HINTS AT A LATE DAY WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SLIGHT
Q-G ASCENT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD EVE TSTORM MAINLY OVR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS RICHER. LOW LVL
WINDS AROUND SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
HOLD DEW PTS IN 40S RANGE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW 50S ON THE FAR
EAST PLAINS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WHERE THE DRY SFC DEW PTS OVR ID/NRN UT
AND SOUTHERN WYO SPREAD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST LOW LVL
FLOW. THE LOW LVL WINDS ARE ASSISTED BY A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVR
THE NRN ROCKIES AROUND A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVR SOUTHERN SASKATCH
AND SFC HIGH ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE WEAKENED. THE DAY LOOKS SUNNY
AND DRY.

MONDAY...PERHAPS THE COOLEST AIR SINCE LATE SPRING COULD ARRIVE TO
THE CWA EARLY TO MID MONDAY. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND CANADIAN
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND DOWN A COOL FRONT AND PUSH COOLER AIR
ALOFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL. A PERIOD OF Q-G ASCENT IS ALSO AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE AXIS/COOLER AIR. AVN AND NOGAPS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES...HOWEVER CMC IS
SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWEST WITH THE ENERGY AND HINTS AT HOLDING THE
COOLER AIR AND TROUGH AXIS BACK OVR WESTERN MT AND ID. THIS WOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE STATE IN WESTERLY TO SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WOULD PAINT AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR MONDAY AND
BEYOND AND COULD SPELL NO COOL FRONT AT ALL. LATEST OF THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN AND NOGAPS. ATTM...WILL GO AHEAD
PLACE ODDS ON COOLING AND BRING TEMPS DOWN FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS/SHWRS. THIS FRONT LOOKS ONLY A
BIT MORE MOIST THAN TDYS COOL SURGE BUT AVN SHOWS 700MB TEMPS
COOLING DOWN TO THE 3-6 DEGC RANGE WITH 500MB TEMPS REGISTERING IN
AT -10 TO -8 DEGC BY EARLY TUES SO A SHORT PERIOD OF GOOD
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT LATE MON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW SHD
PREVAIL OVR THE STATE IN THE EXTENDED IF THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
RANGE MDLS HAVE THEIR WAY. THE CMC NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE
NORTHWEST FLOW NEVER OCCURS IN ANY PERIODS OF THIS LATEST MDL RUN.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY AND THEN A WARMING TREND BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY. WEAK WAVES
WILL PROBABLY BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FASTER FLOW BUT WILL PLAN ON SFC
MOISTURE STAYING ON THE LOW SIDE AND SUBSIDENCE RULING THE WEST.
MAY SEEM LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER IN MID AUGUST.   FREDIN

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-092000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1020 AM MDT FRI AUG 9 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
PLAINS.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN TODAY IS IF TEMPERATURES WILL GET WARM ENOUGH ON
THE PLAINS TO SPARK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
NEED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.  AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.  IF THE TEMPERATURES GET WARM ENOUGH
AND STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS ENOUGH WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE
TO SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER NORTH...THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER LINCOLN AND ELBERT COUNTIES
AFTER 3 PM.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  THERE IS
JUST A SLIGHT RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
PARK COUNTY.

BARJENBRUCH