Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
311 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

LOOKING AT THE 3 HOUR SOUNDINGS BEING RUN DOWN IN DENVER...THE
AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOME IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.54 INCH AT 12Z
TO 0.43 AT 18Z IN SPITE OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE UP TO
ABOUT 9800 FEET MSL.  ACTUALLY...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE
PLAINS ARE 0-2 C HIGHER RIGHT NOW THEN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  RADAR
PICTURES ARE INDICATING A COUPLE DECENT BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE AREAS
WITH SOME CELLS DEVELOPING ON THEM RIGHT NOW.  CONSIDERING THE
ACTUAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION LAST EVENING ALONG WITH CURRENT GOING
SITUATION WILL GO WITH 20-30% POPS FOR THE PLAINS...LESS IN THE
ALPINE AREAS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR A TAD COOLER THEN
THIS MORNINGS.

ON TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THEN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS PROGGED A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY...BUT THE LAPSE RATES SHOWS A BETTER
CAP IN THE MID LAYERS.  THE LOW LEVEL/SURFACE MOISTURE/ENERGY GRIDS
SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION THEN TODAY AS WELL.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW WIDESPREAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR A DENVER CYCLONE.  20-30% POPS WILL SUFFICE.  BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GRIDS SHOW A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A BIT
HIGHER BY AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAYS VALUES.  THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
PRETTY DEEP BUT THERE ARE MORE CAPS AROUND ON THE CROSS SECTIONS
LAPSE RATES FIELD.   THE CAPE VALUES ARE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO NOW AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT THE STABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT NEW AIRMASS MAY BE A
QUESTION. THE AVN PROGS VIGOROUS EASTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALL DAY THURSDAY.   WILL GO 20-30% POPS AGAIN FOR THE
PLAINS.   THE AVN GIVES THE BEST POPS AND QPF ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THURSDAY LOOKS SECOND BEST...THEN TUESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW A 0-1.0 C COOL DOWN FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER 0-1.0 COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN SIMILAR
READINGS FOR THURSDAYS HIGHS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION:  FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ALL FOUR
DAYS.  MOISTURE IS PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
GOING ALL FOUR DAYS.   THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS MAY HAVE UP THIS TO
OUT-RIGHT...CHANCE ON THE INKLING THAT THE ANTICIPATED PONTOON
MAY COMMENCE.          RJK

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-242000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WHILE
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST...WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE HIGH BASED STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
AND GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN FOOTHILLS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF RAIN...STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.  WHILE NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...A BRIEF
MICROBURST WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GARD...WFO BOULDER