Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
300 PM CDT MON APR 29 2002

INTERESTING 36 HOURS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS GONE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM NEAR KTOI TO NEAR KJAN. SURFACE DEW
POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S...BUT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH
JUICY UNSTABLE AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DISAGREE ON POSITION OF FRONT AND ITS MOVEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND HAVE CHOSEN TO TAKE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN GULF. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS RIDE ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS FLAT RIDGE.

1000-850 WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT/SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE
AREA/AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL MENTION TSTMS IN VICINITY OF
BOUNDARY AND GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS. FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS/HAIL/AND WIND. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AREAS
OF THE CWA AND DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING ANY SEVERE WORDING
ATTM. WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING FOR TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. I AM SURE THIS AREA
WILL BE REFINED FURTHER BEFORE TOMORROW AS TIMING AND POSITION OF
FEATURES BECOME CLEARER. DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF ALABAMA AND AREA BECOMES CAPPED.
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS EXPECTED. BRIEF COOLDOWN FRI WITH SURFACE HIGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA. SAT/SUN LOOK NON EVENTFUL WITH NO POPS ADDED
ATTM AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SLIGHTLY WARMER MON AS HIGH MOVES
EAST.

WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS FOR FIRST PERIOD POPS.
TEMPS LOOK CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT.
CURRENTLY ON SPC CONFERENCE CALL ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
SOUTH AREAS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
HSV TE 055/079 064/084 066 75365335
BHM TB 059/080 065/085 067 75364125
MGM TB 062/085 065/090 067 75352115

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-291910-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT MON APR 29 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT
COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.