Severe Thunderstorm Warning 374, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
459 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

GOING TO UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-102200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS ALABAMA TONIGHT.  AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACE MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.  THE
COUNTIES UNDER THE HIGH RISK ARE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 59.  ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...
AND EVEN SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE SEVERE RISKS TAPERS OFF FARTHER
SOUTH TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALL PERSONS ACROSS THE STATE NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TONIGHT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE
THE NECESSARY SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERLY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE
REQUIRED BY THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  ALL COUNTIES IN THE
HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE ACTIVATED AT SOMETIME
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON
MONDAY.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.  THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT OF
ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT.

ALZ001>050-102300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

  ... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TONIGHT ...

    THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA...GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE ALONG
INTERSTATE 59...UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE
INCLUDING THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

    THE AIR MASS OVER ALABAMA HAS BECOME VERY MOIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS INDICATED BY DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.  THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING ADDITIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS A
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE STATE.

    THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND ALL ALABAMIANS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS
THAT MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

    NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO REVIEW YOUR TORNADO OR SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLAN.  DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU SHOULD DO IF YOU WERE THREATENED
BY IMMINENT VIOLENT WEATHER?

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WEATHER SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS AS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

ALZ011>014-110045-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
544 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE...LAMAR...WINSTON AND
MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CST...

.FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
STORMS.

AT 540 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOLLOY...MISSISSIPPI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR...BEAR
CREEK...BEAVERTON...BRILLIANT...GU-WIN...GUIN...LYNN...MANSFIELD...MO
LLOY...NATURAL BRIDGE...SULLIGENT...VERNON...WAYSIDE...WHITEHOUSE AND
WINFIELD.

STRONG WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES. UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND. SOME MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
NEW CONSTRUCTION SITES OR OLDER DETERIORATING BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3357 8873 3343 8860 3406 8750 3428 8770