Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2002

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING FOUR MAIN VORTICES OVER
THE DOMAIN...ONE OVER NEW MEXICO...ONE OVER NORTH DAKOTA...ONE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE LAST ONE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHERN TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SHEAR OFF FROM THE TROF OVER NEW MEXICO...AND RACE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERN U.S. TROF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROBABLY MOVE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.  AVIATION MODEL HAS THE TRAILING
TROF OVER NEW MEXICO MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

OBVIOUSLY...THE AIR MASS OVER FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A FRONT SHOULD HELP KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THAT THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...WAS AFFECTING MAINLY SOME OF THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.  STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.  EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO SHOW SOME WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  CROSS TOTALS AND TOTAL TOTALS OFF THE
MESOETA MODEL IMPLY BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
ALABAMA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FORECAST AREA WIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

HSV 71/92/70/83/68 25354
BHM 72/92/71/86/68 25353
MGM 72/92/71/88/70 25353

.BHM...NONE.

70

ALZ001>050-042003-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FROM A LINE OF TUSCALOOSA...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO
ANNISTON...AND SOUTH.  ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...IF A
THUNDERSTORMS DOES DEVELOP...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL
WILL POSSIBLE OCCUR.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE IS 0
BIRMINGHAM IS 0
MONTGOMERY IS 0

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 PM    8SE ASHVILLE              AL   1.00 IN HAIL
06/04/02   ST. CLAIR                      REPORTED BY ST. CLAIR
                                          COUNTY EMA.

0201 PM    8SE ASHVILLE              AL   1.00 IN HAIL
06/04/02   ST. CLAIR                      QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1S OF
                                          RAGLAND. PUBLIC REPORT.

0201 PM    8SE ASHVILLE              AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/04/02   ST. CLAIR                      TOPS OF TREES BLOWN OUT
                                          ALONG COUNTY ROAD 144...1
                                          MILE SOUTH OF RAGLAND.
                                          PUBLIC REPORT.

0210 PM    NEW SITE                  AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/04/02   TALLAPOOSA                     TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY
                                          ROAD 22.  REPORTED BY
                                          TALLAPOOSA COUNTY 911.

0210 PM    NEW SITE                  AL   1.75 IN HAIL
06/04/02   TALLAPOOSA                     REPORTED BY TALLAPOOSA
                                          COUNTY 911.

0215 PM    8SE ASHVILLE              AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/04/02   ST. CLAIR                      TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES
                                          1 S OF RAGLAND.  PUBLIC
                                          REPORT.

0220 PM    ALEXANDER CITY            AL   1.00 IN HAIL
06/04/02   TALLAPOOSA                     PUBLIC REPORT.