Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Binghamton, NY

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 280257
FFSBGM
NYC025-280415-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR

AT 1037 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FROM ROCK RIFT 
AND HARVARD EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ULSTER COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES 
INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA 
SINCE 830 PM EDT. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODING FROM 
RAINFALL RUNOFF WAS OCCURRING IN DOWNSVILLE. 

AREAS NEAR HARVARD...CORBETT...AND DOWNSVILLE WILL LIKELY SEE 
FLOODING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RAPIDLY FLOOD... 
POSSIBLY WASHING OUT ROADS AND FLOODING NEARBY LOW AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. CAMPERS IN THE WARNED AREA MUST 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

$$

SPORER

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 280258 CCA
FFSBGM
NYC025-280415-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1044 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR DELAWARE 
COUNTY...

AT 1037 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM FROM ROCK RIFT 
AND HARVARD EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ULSTER COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES 
INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA 
SINCE 830 PM EDT. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODING FROM 
RAINFALL RUNOFF WAS OCCURRING IN DOWNSVILLE. 

AREAS NEAR HARVARD...CORBETT...AND DOWNSVILLE WILL LIKELY SEE 
FLOODING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL RAPIDLY FLOOD... 
POSSIBLY WASHING OUT ROADS AND FLOODING NEARBY LOW AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. CAMPERS IN THE WARNED AREA MUST 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

$$

SPORER

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 280415
FFSBGM
NYC025-280600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1215 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR 
DELAWARE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING 
IN DOWNSVILLE...EAST BRANCH...HANCOCK...AND SHINHOPPLE HAVE WEAKENED 
AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA 
HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD 
THREAT. EVEN THOUGH STREAMS AND CREEKS WERE RECEDING...SOME ROADWAYS 
STILL MAY BE COVERED WITH WATER...MUD..OR OTHER DEBRIS. MOTORISTS 
ARE ADVISED TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO 
RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS.

$$

SPORER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TIER OF PA
AND DELAWARE COUNTY. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES HAVE KEPT THE CONVECTION
GOING LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

RRM

...PREVIOUS AFD...

BUBBLE HIGH HAS PROVIDED THE FCST AREA WITH A NICE DAY...BUT A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLDS ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA WHICH IS CLOSER
TO THE OLD FRONT. WDLY SCT ACTIVITY HAS DVLPD NEAR THIS BNDRY FROM
NE PA INTO THE SRN CATSKILLS AND WILL INCLUDE A REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN PD TO COVER THIS.

HAVE VERY LTL FAITH IN THE ETA MDL W/RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTNL TMRW.
PREV PERFORMANCE W/RESPECT TO QPF HAS NOT BEEN GOOD EITHER...ALL YOU
HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE PCPN FCST FOR 18Z TDA AND COMPARE IT TO
THE CRNT RDRS (ACTUALLY ALL MDLS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THIS). LAST
NGTS 00Z RUNS DISPLAYED A SIMILAR WET BIAS WHICH WE DISCOUNTED. BIG
DIFFS IN MDL REPRESENTATION OF LOW LVL MSTR FIELDS AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TMRW. I STILL CANT FIND A DECENT TRIGGER TO FIRE UP
CONVECTION AND DYNAMICS OVERALL ARE NEGLIGIBLE OR WEAK. ETA
PROFILES...WHICH SHOWED 2600 J/KG CAPE FOR SYR TMRW FROM THE PREV
00Z RUN...HAS BACKED OFF TO ARND 1750 BUT STILL LOOKS UNREALISTIC.
NGM PROFILES SHOW CAPES MAXING OUT ARND 250 J/KG AND SEEMS TO BE
MORE REALISTIC. FOR BGM ETA SHOWING ARND 2000 TMRW THE NGM ARND
1000. CRNT FCST HAS CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON TUES. WILL
NOT START FLIP-FLOPPING BUT ATTM BELIEVE THAT WE WONT SEE ANYTHING
BETTER THAN ISOLD CONVECTION (IF THAT) ACRS CNTRL AND NRN ZONES
TMRW, I.E., IF THE PCPN WAS NOT ALREADY IN THE FCST I WOULD NOT BE
ADDING IT. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHCS FOR SCT AFTN CONVECTION
ACRS NRN/NE PA AND PSBLY THE BORDER COUNTIES OF SRN NY WHERE NGM/AVN
SHOW THE GREATEST K INDICES. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT DOWNPLAY IT THE BEST I CAN THROUGH THE FCST WORDING
ACRS UPSTATE NY.

BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE ON WED WHEN MDLS HINT AT A
WMFNTL-TYPE BNDRY MOVG THRU THE RGN AND A WEAK S/WV. FCST K INDICES
IN THE L30S ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. AVN HOWEVER LOOKS A LTL OVERDONE
WITH THE MSTR FIELDS...AS DO THE LIKELY MAV POPS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CHC POPS FOR AFTN CONVECTION AND LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO PLAY THIS UP.

XTNDD FCST...MDLS STILL HINTING AT SVR POTNL FOR FRIDAY WITH COLD
FROPA...THEN COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND.

.BGM...NONE.

BRADY