Special Marine Warning 9, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
350 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

SURFACE LOW...COLD FRONT...AND 500 MB IMPULSE ARE FORECAST TO SWING
E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT -- THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FOLLOWING TONIGHTS ACTIVE WEATHER...
NEXT FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER FRI THROUGH SAT -- ALONG WITH
SMALL RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER. SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WI THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT N THIS EVENING...REACHING VICINITY OF THE STRAITS
BY MID EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S TO
SPREAD N ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL FALL TO AROUND -6 THIS EVENING
WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z-11Z. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
AND ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH 850 MB SW FLOW OF AROUND 40 KTS
AND 500 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS. ACTUAL 500 MB SPEED MAX APPEARS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND SURFACE FORCING/MOISTURE -- WHICH MAY BECOME A
HINDRANCE LATER. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER WI EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS LATER THIS EVENING
(TOWARD MIDNIGHT) JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
DRYING ALSO NOTED DURING THE MORNING ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEN AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED
AS RIGHT/ENTRANCE REGION OF 500 MB SPEED MAX AFFECTS AREA. WILL OPT
FOR PARTLY SUNNY EARLY...WITH SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MID CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE STRAITS -- PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH. SOME
850/500 MB QG FORCING IS NOTED...ALONG WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THOUGH LOWEST LAYERS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH
A PERSISTENT COOL/DRY NNW FLOW...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF
TVC/APN LINE.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY...WEAK IMPULSE SLIPS EAST
EARLY SAT...ALLOWING A RETURN OF DRIER AIR. EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY
SATURDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...
ANOTHER 500 MB IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY -- EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE AS A
RESULT...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE MON...WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
AS NEXT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. TIMING OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON MRF SUGGESTS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY -- AND WILL BRING THIS RISK IN FOR E UPPER LATE
IN THE DAY WHILE TENTATIVELY KEEPING N LOWER DRY. WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE BOTH WED AND THUR...
WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS GOING FOR BOTH WED AND THUR.

.APX...NONE.

SMITH

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-190000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
251 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

* THREAT AREA...EASTERN UPPER AND ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL...80 MPH WINDS
  AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

* TIME OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

* FOR INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING...POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS...WEATHER
  CONDITIONS PLEASE REFER TO WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

IF LATER INFORMATION FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT...APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

SULLIVAN

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-190000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
251 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

* THREAT AREA...EASTERN UPPER AND ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

* DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL...80 MPH WINDS
  AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

* TIME OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

* FOR INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING...POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS...WEATHER
  CONDITIONS PLEASE REFER TO WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

IF LATER INFORMATION FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THREAT...APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

SULLIVAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD, MI
341 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RACED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS
PRODUCED SCATTERED REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORTS WERE ALSO RECEIVED.

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 AM    MANISTEE                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   MANISTEE                       TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN AND POWER
                                          LINES.

1015 AM    KALEVA                    MI   58 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
04/18/02   MANISTEE

1030 AM    KEWADIN                   MI   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
04/18/02   ANTRIM

1030 AM    1 E IRONTON               MI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   CHARLEVOIX

1030 AM    9 SSW GAYLORD             MI   58 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
04/18/02   OTSEGO

1040 AM    PETOSKEY                  MI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   EMMET

1100 AM    MANCELONA                 MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   ANTRIM                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2
                                          TREES DOWN.

1010 AM    FRANKFORT                 MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   BENZIE                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS
                                          THE COUNTY.

1026 AM    KINGSLEY                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   GRAND TRAVERSE                 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          ROOF BLOWN OFF BUILDING.

1042 AM    KALKASKA                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   KALKASKA                       LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWER LINES DOWN.

1125 AM    VIENNA                    MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   MONTMORENCY                    TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN.

1125 AM    FREDERIC                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
04/18/02   CRAWFORD                       NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

DNV/BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD, MI
435 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

354 PM    FREDERIC                  MI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02  CRAWFORD

430 PM    VIENNA                    MI   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02  MONTMORENCY

CJC/DNV