Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

AFTER THE PAST FEW MONTHS...I CANT BELIEVE I AM ABOUT TO PUT THIS ON
PAPER...I AM ACTUALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NOT ONLY IS THERE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY LINE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. WHAT REMAINS OF A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SATELLITE AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHING FAR
WESTERN TEXAS. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN
PANHANDLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO...MATCHING WELL WITH THE AVN/ETA/MM5 FORECASTS.
JET STREAK APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...AIDING LIFT ALONG THE DRY
LINE...HELPING TO PRODUCE THE THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT...WITH NEARLY
EVERYONE HAVING A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE AVN IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE ETA/MESOETA/MM5 ALL PRODUCE RAINFALL
IN OUR AREA WITH MODEL QPF RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH. THE AVN
SUGGESTS AN MCS WILL FORM WITH MODEL QPF OF OVER 1 INCH. THE AVN
SOLUTION IS REASONABLE (WITH QPF LIKELY OVERDONE)...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE DRY LINE TONIGHT MIXING WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET (40+ KTS) LEADING TO A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT. THE MCS WILL THEN MOVE MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF
AREAS RECEIVING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...
AND NO PREFERRED AREAS SHOWING UP YET...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ALL AREAS
TONIGHT.

AMA   58  78  55  79 /  70  60  40  40
DHT   55  77  54  78 /  50  40  30  30

.AMA...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

FOX

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-262300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT MIDDAY...AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE LOCATED A DRYLINE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG A LINE FROM PLAINVIEW...TO
ABILENE...TO FORT WORTH. MEANWHILE...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WERE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WERE
REPLENISHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL AID IN THE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE DRYLINE WILL SLIDE NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO LINE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VERY
UNSTABLE AIR AND FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
UPDRAFTS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ARE LESS
FAVORABLE...SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADOES ARE VERY SLIM.

AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN
THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ON DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM ON MONDAY.

08