Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
425 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

DRYLINE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE UP OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
WILL COMBINE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#227 FOR MORE DETAILS.

THIS BOUNDARY EDGES EAST THIS EVENING AND STALLS OVER THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS...THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD START TO MARCH EAST AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES EAST
OF THE DRYLINE. REPEAT MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
DRYLINE STAYS NEAR THE EASTERN ZONES.

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DUE TO TERRAIN UPSLOPE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE IS REPLENISHED.

FCSTR ID= 08

AMA 55/87/54/87 4000
DHT 51/85/51/86 2000

.AMA...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL UNTIL 10 PM CDT.
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-052300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES WEST OF HEREFORD TEXAS.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN A NARROW BAND 20
MILES WIDE EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF ELKHART KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO 50
MILES NORTHWEST OF HEREFORD TEXAS.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE WAS ORIENTED FROM
DALHART EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO ROSWELL NEW MEXICO. THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT UPPER-LEVELS...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WERE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH
CHANGING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

INITIALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THEREFORE...SKYWARN SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM TONIGHT.

CB