Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
500 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

RECENT CENTRAL U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
STEADY WEAKENING AND WESTWARD MIGRATION AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
REGIONS. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
CO AND WEST CENTRAL KS...WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHEASTERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK
PANHANDLE.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN PROXIMITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH PASSING OF SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. ALSO...DECIDED TO JUST
KEEP THE LOW POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION BEYOND 24 HOURS. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST...A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE OK
AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA
TONIGHT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO A POSITION
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH A BROAD TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR TSRA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 4

AMARILLO    62 86 62 88 /  40 40 30 20
BEAVER      63 84 61 88 /  70 30 20 20
BOISE CITY  59 82 61 85 /  40 40 30 20
BORGER      61 85 62 88 /  40 40 30 20
BOYS RANCH  60 84 61 88 /  40 40 30 20
CANYON      62 87 62 88 /  40 40 30 20
CLARENDON   66 90 65 89 /  40 40 30 20
DALHART     60 83 60 86 /  40 40 30 20
GUYMON      62 83 62 88 /  70 30 20 20
HEREFORD    62 87 61 88 /  40 40 30 20
LIPSCOMB    64 86 63 88 /  60 30 20 20
PAMPA       64 87 64 88 /  40 40 30 20
SHAMROCK    67 90 66 89 /  40 40 30 20
WELLINGTON  68 91 66 89 /  40 40 30 20

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-092100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM DALHART TO
LIPSCOMB.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WYOMING AND COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY TONIGHT.

LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALL COMBINE TO SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
AND THIS WILL HELP IN POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

GOEHRING