Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
223 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

PRIMARY CONCERN IS FIRST PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AIRMASS
OVER THE PANHANDLES HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 3000 J/KG.  SURFACE LOW IS JUST WEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA. WEAK
WSHFT/COOL FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ZONES. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO VERY RICH LOW
LEVEL MSTR AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST ZONES
TONIGHT AS 30KT SOUTHERLY 8H JET DEVELOPS.

FOR THURSDAY...ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PATTERN. HIGH RH VALUES
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO LOOKS PRETTY
POSSIBLE SO WILL RETAIN MUCH OF INHERITED POP/TEMP/WIND STRUCTURE
FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER DECENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST SOME DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS AREA IN TEMPORAL PHASE WITH MAX HEATING.

FCSTID = 13

AMARILLO    66 86 61 80 /  30 30 30 40
BEAVER      60 83 61 80 /  80 40 20 30
BOISE CITY  59 83 58 80 /  30 40 30 40
BORGER      64 85 61 81 /  40 30 30 40
BOYS RANCH  64 85 60 82 /  30 30 30 40
CANYON      66 87 61 80 /  30 20 30 40
CLARENDON   68 88 63 81 /  40 20 30 40
DALHART     61 84 59 81 /  30 30 30 40
GUYMON      60 83 60 81 /  50 40 20 30
HEREFORD    66 87 61 80 /  30 20 40 50
LIPSCOMB    63 84 61 79 /  70 40 20 30
SHAMROCK    67 87 64 80 /  50 20 20 30
WELLINGTON  68 88 64 81 /  40 20 20 30

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SLATTERY

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-122300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TYRONE OKLAHOMA TO SHAMROCK TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH
THE DRYLINE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL IMPROVE
AREAWIDE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE