Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER LUBBOCKS COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH TONIGHT OVER A COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN WITH A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LIKELY
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO PUSHES TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT KEEPING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. ONCE
THE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE MORNING...THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...A COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE MRF SHOULD BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN U.S.

AMARILLO    54 75 52 85 /  80 30 00 00
BEAVER      51 77 52 82 /  70 20 00 00
BOISE CITY  48 72 49 83 /  70 20 00 00
BORGER      53 75 51 86 /  70 20 00 00
BOYS RANCH  52 73 51 84 /  80 30 00 00
CANYON      55 76 53 85 /  80 30 00 00
CLARENDON   58 79 56 86 /  80 30 00 00
DALHART     50 73 50 83 /  70 20 00 00
GUYMON      50 75 50 81 /  70 20 00 00
HEREFORD    55 76 53 85 /  80 30 00 00
LIPSCOMB    56 77 54 84 /  70 20 00 00
SHAMROCK    59 79 59 85 /  80 30 00 00
WELLINGTON  59 80 59 85 /  80 30 00 00

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-042200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RISK AREA IS MAINLY SOUTH OF A TEXLINE TEXAS TO BEAVER OKLAHOMA
LINE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXITING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...COOL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS A LESSER THREAT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RECEIVING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0119 PM    WELLINGTON                TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/04/02   COLLINGSWORTH                  REPORTED BY COLLINGSWORTH
                                          COUNTY SO.