Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

.DISC...WELL OUR LUCK REGARDING THE SVR WX MAY RUN OUT. HUGE MCS OUT
IN SWRN NY STATE AND GROWING. TRACK IS E...BUT CELLS ARE BUILDING ON
ITS NORTHERN FLANK. WWA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR NY ZONES.
UPDATE NEEDED TO BEEF UP POPS AND WORDING. NO REAL CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE LATER PERIOD. WORKZONES OUT AND THE REAL ONES RIGHT BEHIND.

.ALY...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 03Z MON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES.

.ALY...NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-290300

***PREV AFD***

.DISC...SO FAR WE HAVE DODGE THE BULLET WITH ANY SVR TODAY AND
REALLY NOT MUCH RAIN AS THE PREVIOUS MODELS HAD INDICATED. THE 2ND
MCS FROM WRN NY TOOK A TURN TOO FAR SOUTH...ACROSS PA AND TOOK MOST
OF THE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. THE WARM FRONT IS JUST WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND HAS LOST MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS SUPPORT.
HOWEVER SINCE THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THE
COULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE...WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN FOR TONIGHT AND
GO WITH CONTINUITY.

TOMORROW LOOKS NASTY...HOT AND HUMID WITH TDS AOB 70 AND TEMPS CLOSE
TO OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 90 (ESP S OF KALB). THE SOUND
INDICATES LITTLE CAPE AND WHATEVER CAPE THERE IS WILL BE CAPPED.

THAT CAP WILL WEAKEN AND DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER MON UNITE...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE ONLY THING THIS COLD FRONT HAS
GOING FOR IT...WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
LOOKS A BIT LACKING. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS AND CRANK OUT QPF TO THE
TUNE OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH. MIGHT BE OVERDONE
CONSIDERING THAT THE FROPA WILL OVERNIGHT AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. HOWEVER...WITH PWAI STILL MIGHTY HIGH (1.5-2 INCHES) WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN. CAPES ARE SURPRISINGLY
LOW...AT LEAST ON THE ETA.

THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT IS SHALLOW...AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT
LIMPS PAST THE REGION ON TUE. ALL IT WILL DO IS TAKE THE EDGE OFF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUT NOT MUCH. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...BUT NOT REALLY UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

.EXTENDED...WED AND THU LOOK QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASING AGAIN. THE STRONGER COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS SLATED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY...PROBABLY LATER THAN EARLIER. FRIDAY COULD GET
QUITE HOT AND HUMID AGAIN...AND WE MIGHT HAVE MORE POTENTIAL SVR
OUTBREAK BUT IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT. COOLER DRIER AIR
SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.

FOLLOWED THE MACHINE NOS FAIRLY CLOSELY...EXCEPT WENT A LOT IN THE
POP DEPARTMENT THAN THE MAVS WHICH APPEAR TOO HIGH.

.HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. NO MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH FELL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY...RIVERS ARE STILL LOW.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WE RECEIVE TONIGHT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS...SO LCL FLDG IS REMOTELY PSBL.
NO RAIN FORECAST ON MONDAY.

.ALY...NONE.

HWJIV

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP A
0610PM     SUN JUL 28 2002
#1 0000001 000
ALSO WLSR QHQT QTRF APTS WAPT
02073    FILE 28   ALLEGANY CO SO NY0020000                  JUL 28-02
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         COPY SEMO DUTY OFFICER
                   THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND REPORT

COUNTY(S) AFFECTED: ALLEGANY

LOCATION (INCLUDING TOWN AND NEAREST ROAD): SCATTERED THROUGH OUT THE COUNTY

DATE AND TIME CONDITION STARTED: 16:55
EXTENT OF DAMAGE OR AREAS IN DANGER: TREES - POWER LINES DOWN - PROPANE TANK
STRUCK BY LIGHTENING

CHECK ONE:
HAIL SIZE REPORTED
(X) - NO HAIL REPORTED    ( ) - LESS THAN 1/2 (PEA)
( ) - 1/2 (MARBLE)       ( ) - 1/2 TO 3/4 (PENNY)
( ) - 3/4 TO 1 (DIME)   ( ) - 1.25 (HALF DOLLAR)
( ) - 1.50 (WALNUT)      ( ) - 1.75 (GOLFBALL)
( ) - 2.00 (HENS EGG)    ( ) - 2.50 (TENNISBALL)
( ) - 2.75 (BASEBALL)    ( ) - 3.00 (TEA CUP)
( ) - 4.00 (GRAPEFRUIT)  ( ) - 4.50 (SOFTBALL)
NUMBER KILLED:  0       NUMBER INJURED: 0

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
LIGHTNING REPORTED AS ( ) - CLOUD TO CLOUD  (X) - CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DAMAGE TO:            (X) - TREES
(X) - POWER/TELCO POLES   (X) - POWER/TELCO LINES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     ( ) - PRIVATE HOMES
( ) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  ( ) - CROPS
NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
HIGH WIND/TSTORM WIND DAMAGE   ( ) - CROPS
(X) - SMALL TREES/SHRUBS  (X) - LARGE TREES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     ( ) - PRIVATE HOMES
( ) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  ( ) - POWER/TELCO POLES
(X) - POWER/TELCO LINES

RELIABLE WIND SPEED REPORTS:     MPH OR    KNOTS
NUMBER KILLED: 0        NUMBER INJURED: 0

FLOODING (IF EXTENSIVE, SEND SEPARATE FLOOD MESSAGE FROM MENU)
( ) - STORM SEWER OVERFLOWS, UNDERPASSES, STREET FLOODING
( ) - LOCAL SMALL CREEKS OVERFLOWING
( ) - STREAMS AND LARGE CREEKS FLOODING (COMPLETE REMARKS W/DAMAGE

REMARKS:

AUTH PHONE #: 585 268-9460

AUTH DISPATCHER R SWARTHOUT

OPER - SWARTHOUT,RANDY                1809

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP A
0712PM     SUN JUL 28 2002
#1 0000001 000
AFAL WLSR QHQT QTRF APTS WAPT
02250    FILE 28   SP JAMESTOWN NY1060100                    JUL 28-02
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         COPY SEMO DUTY OFFICER
                   THUNDERSTORM/HIGH WIND REPORT

COUNTY(S) AFFECTED: CHAUTAUQUA

LOCATION (INCLUDING TOWN AND NEAREST ROAD): ST RT 394, 62, V/FALCONER
C/JAMESTOWN
DATE AND TIME CONDITION STARTED: 07/28/02   4:05 PM
EXTENT OF DAMAGE OR AREAS IN DANGER: TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
UNKNOWN AMOUNT OF DAMAGE TO PROPERTY  AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS

CHECK ONE:
HAIL SIZE REPORTED
( ) - NO HAIL REPORTED    ( ) - LESS THAN 1/2 (PEA)
( ) - 1/2 (MARBLE)       ( ) - 1/2 TO 3/4 (PENNY)
(X) - 3/4 TO 1 (DIME)   ( ) - 1.25 (HALF DOLLAR)
( ) - 1.50 (WALNUT)      ( ) - 1.75 (GOLFBALL)
( ) - 2.00 (HENS EGG)    ( ) - 2.50 (TENNISBALL)
( ) - 2.75 (BASEBALL)    ( ) - 3.00 (TEA CUP)
( ) - 4.00 (GRAPEFRUIT)  ( ) - 4.50 (SOFTBALL)
NUMBER KILLED:          NUMBER INJURED:

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
LIGHTNING REPORTED AS ( ) - CLOUD TO CLOUD  (X) - CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DAMAGE TO:            (X) - TREES
( ) - POWER/TELCO POLES   ( ) - POWER/TELCO LINES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     (X) - PRIVATE HOMES
( ) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  ( ) - CROPS
NUMBER KILLED:          NUMBER INJURED:

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPLICABLE:
HIGH WIND/TSTORM WIND DAMAGE   (X) - CROPS
(X) - SMALL TREES/SHRUBS  (X) - LARGE TREES
( ) - COMM. BUILDINGS     (X) - PRIVATE HOMES
( ) - OUT/FARM BUILDINGS  (X) - POWER/TELCO POLES
(X) - POWER/TELCO LINES

RELIABLE WIND SPEED REPORTS: UKN MPH OR    KNOTS
NUMBER KILLED:          NUMBER INJURED:

FLOODING (IF EXTENSIVE, SEND SEPARATE FLOOD MESSAGE FROM MENU)
(X) - STORM SEWER OVERFLOWS, UNDERPASSES, STREET FLOODING
(X) - LOCAL SMALL CREEKS OVERFLOWING
( ) - STREAMS AND LARGE CREEKS FLOODING (COMPLETE REMARKS W/DAMAGE

REMARKS:

AUTH PHONE #: 716 665-3113

AUTH SGT RICHARD A KOTA                             CHWALEK/7-10 PM

OPER - CHWALEK,SALLY J                1911

NYZ038-282345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN HERKIMER COUNTY...

AT 716 PM EDT DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF HOLLAND PATENT TO 2
MILES SOUTH OF CEDAR LAKE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTH OF UTICA TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ILION...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH...POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WILL BE NEAR...

OHIO AND VAN HORNESVILLE AT 725 PM EDT...
BLACK CREEK RESERVOIR AT 730 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.