Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2002

FCST TRENDS FM PREV ZFP IN GOOD SHAPE. WL UPDATE FCST MNLY FOR
ENHANCED TSTM WORDING. ENTIRE FA IN SPC SLIGHT RISK SVR TODAY. AREA
MORNING SOUNDINGS VERY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT LIKELIHOOD OF SVR TSTMS.
HIGH PWATS AOA 1.5 ALSO SUGGEST PSBLTY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOTS OF
SUN/SFC HTG THRU MIDDAY BUT MAY TAKE TIL MID AFTN TO REACH L-M90
CNVTV TEMPS SO PUSH BACK PCPN TIMING A BIT.

PREV DISC BLO:
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LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE N AND W. THESE
CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS STILL ONGOING AT THIS HOUR FROM NEW
ENGLAND SW ACROSS WV AND KY...WERE ASSOC WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE.

AM LOOKING FOR A GOOD AMT OF SUNSHINE TODAY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NW PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. UNLIKE PAST DAYS...WHEN
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WERE THE RULE...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
DEVELOPING SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER AT LEAST WESTERN
COUNTIES...ASSOC WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF...EVIDENT IN SFC CONVERGENCE
FIELDS IN THE MODELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...AS FRONT SAGS S ACROSS THE CWA. SFC CONVERGENCE AIDED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER MID ATLC...AHD OF SHORT WAVE
WHICH APPROACHES TONIGHT FROM THE W. SHORT WAVE ALSO TO PROVIDE
ADDED LIFT. SEE NO REASON NOT TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SE COUNTIES FRI MORNING...AS
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC FRONT EXIT THE COAST.

FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE LOOK TO BE GENERALLY COOLER AND DRY. WL
FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO BE A LITTLE WARY OF POSSIBLE SC FORMATION PART OF THAT
TIME...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS SETS
UP.

SOME POSSIBILITY OF A FROPA NEXT WEDNESDAY...BASED ON LATEST ECMWF
AND LAST NIGHTS MRF. NO REASON TO ALTER DAY 7 FORECAST AT THIS
POINT...WHICH SUGGESTS MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
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.AKQ...
MD...SCA CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
NC...SCA ATLC COASTAL WATERS N OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
VA...SCA CSTL WTRS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO CAPE CHARLES LGT.

CULLEN

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-062045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1055 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...

THE THREAT AREA INCLUDES...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...IS MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 10
PM.

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. YOU CAN ALSO CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

CULLEN