Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
235 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2002

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER SE VA...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN AND WRN SECTIONS. A FEW SHOWERS
MADE THEIR WAY ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA TODAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE HAS
DEVELOPED...AS WESTERLY WINDS AND ASSOC DOWNSLOPE HAVE HELPED
INHIBIT THIS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING S
THROUGH OHIO AND INDIANA. AS HIGH MOVES FROM GRTLKS TO NEW
ENGLAND...THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO BACK DOOR ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TEMPS FOR TOMORROW...AND POSSIBLY
FOCUSING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE THIS
REPRESENTED...AIDED BY WEAK LOW ALONG FRONT AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS IF WE GET
ANYTHING GOING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH JUST CHC OF
SHOWERS NE NC COUNTIES WITH FROPA.

AVN HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE BACK DOOR FEATURE...AND
OTHER MODELS HAVE FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH AVN SOLN...SUCH THAT THE
FRONT STALLS OUT S AND W OF CWA ON WED...THEN TRIES TO RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT WED NIGHT. THIS MEANS LOWER TEMPS...AND STABLE AMS FOR
WED. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTN AND NIGHT...AT LEAST OVER
WRN ZONES...BUT GO WITH DRY FCAST FOR NE ZONES. THU...AREA BREAKS
INTO WARM SECTOR...BUT PRERONTAL TROF STILL WARRANTS CHC OF AFTN
TSTMS OVER WRN SECTIONS. FRONT SWEEPS FROM NW TO SE THU NIGHT AND
FRI MORNING...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FRI SRN ZONES. FINALLY...A RAIN
FREE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS IN. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHCS SUN AND
MON WITH WAA THEN NEXT COLD FROPA...FOLLOWED BY DRY DAY TUE.

MARINE...NO FLAGS...ALTHOUGH SEAS COULD PUSH 5 FT ON WED...WITH ELY
SURGE.

FCSTID = 18

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.

REILLY

VAZ063-070-071-072345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
528 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2002

AT 525 PM...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUMBERLAND...AMELIA...GOOCHLAND AND WESTERN
CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RICHMOND METRO AREA BETWEEN 545 AND 645 PM.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ALSO...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKE RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS.

RUSNAK