Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
250 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

TOR WATCH ISSUED...LINE OF STORMS GNRLY PARALLEL TO MIDLVL FLO...SO
SOME BOWS MAY FORM...AND SOME CELLS THAT CAN GET ISOLATED MAY
PRODUCE TORNADOES.  THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF HEAVY RAIN
SINCE THE STORMS LUK TO BE TRAINING...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME STANDING
WTR IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPCLY IN URBAN AREAS.  INITAL BATCH OF
TSTMS HV BEST CHC TO BE SVR...THEN ANY TRAINING BHND INITIAL BATCH
WUD BE MSTLY HVY RAIN. VIL THRESHOLD FOR HAIL LUKS TO BE NR 60 FOR
DIME HAIL.

NXT UPR IMPULSE TO TRACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND
RIC MAY BE JUST ON NRN EDGE OF RAIN.  SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY LUK
O.K. AND MON NGT LUKS LK ANTHR UPR IMPULSE.  SINCE WE ARE RGT IN THE
LLVL THERMAL GRAD...WE ARE MOST AFFECTED BY LTL UPR IMPULSES THAT
SQUIRT THRU IN QUICK ZNL FLO. UPR RDG OVR SE U.S. AMPLIFIES INTO
MIDWEEK...SO WARMING.

ON CSTL WTRS...SCA CONT.

SBY   54  66  39  64 /  30   0   0   0
OXB   54  66  39  64 /  30   0   0   0
ECG   61  70  47  62 /  40   0   0  30
ORF   60  68  47  62 /  40   0   0  30
PHF   57  71  44  62 /  40   0   0  30
AKQ   57  71  44  62 /  40   0   0  30
RIC   56  71  44  62 /  40   0   0  40
FVX   56  71  44  62 /  40   0   0  40

.AKQ...
MD...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES MDZ021>025.
SMALL CRAFT ADVSY FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE.

NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY VA/NC BRDR TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
VA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
VAZ048>049...VAZ060>100. SMALL CRAFT ADVSY CHINCOTEAGUE TO VA/NC
BRDR.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO CAPE
HENRY.

NS

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-022130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1126 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THREAT AREA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

TIME OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION...CREATING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THAT
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.  A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY FORMED IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
KENTUCKY...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT AROUND 50 MPH.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
IN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

AREAS FROM FARMVILLE TO SOUTH HILL AND LOUISA WILL SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 PM.  THE STORMS WILL REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING...

  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH...
  LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...
  ISOLATED TORNADOES...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. YOU CAN ALSO CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

NS

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-022130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS...

THREAT AREA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

TIME OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BETWEEN 3 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S ACROSS THE REGION...CREATING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THAT
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY FORMED FROM THE VIRGINIA...WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER...THROUGH KENTUCKY...MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT AROUND 50 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND NORTH
CAROLINA.

AREAS FROM FARMVILLE TO SOUTH HILL AND LOUISA WILL SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY 3 PM.  THE STORMS WILL REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING...

  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH...
  LARGE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER...
  ISOLATED TORNADOES...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. YOU CAN ALSO CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

NS