Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002

LOOKED AT CURRENT SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA.
THIS IS EVIDENT AS LOW CLDS HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVR SE PARTS OF
VA AND 06Z ETA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING THE LFC LATE THIS
MRNG AND BELIEVE THIS IS HELPING GENERATE THE CLDS AND A FEW LGT
SHWRS. THE FACT THAT WE ARE ALREADY CLDY IS NOW HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN OVR VA WHILE BETTER HTG IN NC. BELIEVE CAPES WL STAY
LOWER IN VA MORE IN THE 1 TO 2K RANGE WHILE OVR 3K POSSIBLE IN NC.

SHR PROFILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN LOOKING WHEN THE SW PASSES
STILL NOT MUCH FOR THE AFTN SO ISOLATED THREAT OF ANY SVR TSTMS
LEANING MORE TOWARD NC PART OF CWA. WL LOWER POPS TO CHC AS WINDS
ALREADY TURNING TO W AND VWP SHOWING THIS NICELY ON AKQ RADAR SO
LIMITING ANY CONVG AND LIFT FM SW ON MODELS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.

WL LOWER TEMPS ACRS THE N AND GO MSTLY CLDY EVEN OVR SE CWA BY ERLY
AFTN.

DROPPING SCA AS WINDS NOT COMING UP THAT MUCH AND SEAS REMAINING
LOWER.

JAB
...PREVIOUS AFD......................

LAST NITES TSTRMS PRODUCED MUCH NEEDED QPF AMTS BTWN 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS FA.

ERN TROF TO LIFT OUT NXT 48 HRS...LEAVING H5 RIDGE TO BUILD IN FM
W OVR WKEND. CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS FA THIS EVE...MOVG E OF CSTL WTRS
BY 12Z SAT. SVRL WL S/WS PROGGED AHEAD OF BNDRY TDY. COMBINATION OF
RTHR JUICY & UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SAID S/WS...SHUD RESULT IN CHC TO
LIKELY POPS TODAY. MAY SEE LULL IN ACTIVITY ERLY THIS AM (SPCLLY CSTL
AREAS) WITH BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTRN. SPC HAS RGN IN SLGT RISK...
MAIN CONCERN FOR DMGG WNDS LATER TDY. XPCT TO SEE LINE TSTRMS FORM
ALONG TROF...THEN PROGRESS E AS IT MERGES WITH MAIN BNDRY LATER TDY.
CUD SEE SOME HVY RAINERS AS PWS REMAIN WELL OVR 1 INCH. TMPS HELD
IN 80S DUE TO MORE CLD CVR.

PCPN ENDS N-S THIS EVE AS BNDRY PUSHES FRTHR S. GRDL CLRG SKIES WITH
MINS INTO 60S. SFC HIGH TO N PUSHES BNDRY INTO SRN STATES SAT. THIS
RESULTS IN DRY & LESS HUMID CNDTNS THRU SUN. ONSHORE WND FLOW KEEPS
BCH AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

XTNDD PRD RTHR UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CONT TO OFFER DRFNT SOLNS WRT
CUT-OFF LOW DVLPMNT OVR SE. LTST TRENDS KEEP ANY DVLPMNT S OF FA
WITH LOW TRACKING IVOF GULF STREAM. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE SRN
TRACK (WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE MODEL RUNS EVEN FRTHR S).
THIS WUD KEEP MOST PCPN S OF AKQ FA. CRNTLY HAVE LOW POPS OVR SERN
CNTYS TUE. WILL KEEP THEM THERE FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TRACK OF SYSTM.

CWF...SCA FLAGS CSTL WTRS THIS AM. XPCT DMNSHG WNDS/SEAS AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

FCSTID = 44
SBY   86  65  86  60 /  50  30  10  10
OXB   83  68  80  64 /  50  40  10  10
ECG   89  73  88  67 /  50  40  20  20
ORF   87  72  86  68 /  50  50  20  20
PHF   85  69  86  66 /  50  30  10  10
AKQ   88  70  89  66 /  60  30  20  20
RIC   84  67  88  64 /  60  20  10  10
FVX   85  70  89  66 /  60  30  20  20

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.