Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

MAIN QUESTION THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA AND EVENTUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALSO...HOW LONG WILL THIS SMOKE AND HAZE LAST?

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL STICK AROUND AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND POSSIBLY
LONGER. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOST DENSE SMOKE
CROSSING CENTRAL AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER LARGE SMOKE
PLUME DEVELOPING OVER EAST AZ AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUING W-NW
TO N CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE
AND HAZE BY TUE AM. HYSPLT DISPERSION MODEL INDICATES THIS AS WELL
WHICH WOULD BRING THE THICKEST SMOKE OVER SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE CWA.

NOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MEAN
RHS BEYOND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS
BEING THE MAIN CAUSE FOR LIFT. POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT IN
THE EAST AND THEN SPREAD WEST WED AND BEYOND. A GENERAL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF SOUTH...PUSHES INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND A SOUTHEAST
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS INCREASING 5-15 DEGREES AFTER 24
HOURS WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE CATEGORIES 36-48 HOURS OUT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD BE A GOOD TRIGGER FOR TUE NIGHT CONVECTION AND AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY. IF THE CONVECTION TAKES PLACE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD
RESULT IN EAST WINDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THUS INCREASING THE
DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES WED. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF THE ETA...MESO ETA AND AVN. TEMPERATURE TREND OF LOWER
MAXES LOOK GOOD WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANV AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LOW OVER
EAST TX SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH
REPLACING THE LOW OVER THE GULF SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SW DESERTS WEAKENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF A SE AND
POSSIBLY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA. WITH THIS MENTIONED...I
WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCES FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER FOR THE THU THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIOD. GB

ABQ HH 067/094 068/092 068 49001
SAF HH 056/090 058/088 057 490-1
TCC HH 067/092 066/090 064 49-12

.ABQ...NONE.