Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2002

MOISTURE IN PLAINS ACROSS THE EAST WITH AN UNKOWN QUANTITY DUE TO
THE LACK OF SOUNDING DATA IN THE WEST. KEY WILL BE REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH PRETTY GOOD STRATUS SHIELD HOLDING
STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. THINK
SOME HOLES WILL BREAK OPEN AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
THUS INCREASED POPS FOR SOUTH OF I-40. DISTINCT CLEARING AREA ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS AND THE ROSWELL AREA.
THUS...FAVOR THIS AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
MID 50 TO AROUND 60 DEWPOINTS. UNFORTUNATELY MISSING ROSWELL
DEWPOINT DATA SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ALSO FOR THE MOST
PART FAVOR THIS REGION WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES. AS WITH THE
EARLIER HAZARDOUS STATEMENT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ALSO LAYING AROUND
AROSS THE EAST FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS. ALSO UPDATED PACKAGE TO
REFLECT THE CHANGING WINDS FROM EAST...SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WACHTER

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-142000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1100 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2002

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL
AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE FAVORED AREAS WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LESS TO START OUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
TIME AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL BE CAPABLE OF MORE SHOWER AND
THUNERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANTICIPATED LESS CLOUD COVER. THE
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
COLFAX...HARDING...EASTERN MORA...AND UNION.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.