Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
400 PM MDT SAT OCT 26 2002

MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MSTR RETURN
INTO CNTL/SW NEW MEXICO TODAY...AT LEAST FOR LATE OCTOBER....WITH SFC
DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S SCNTL/SE AND 40S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. THIS
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG JET MAX OVERHEAD AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCT/NMRS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IN NEAR TERM. APPEARS THE BEST
POTNL FOR SVR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS SCNTL/SW NEW MEXICO WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE/GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
SEVERE FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS EITHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TSTMS
ACROSS THE EAST, PARTICULARLY NE QUARTER, BUT STORMS SHOULD HAVE
TROUBLE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HAD TO TREND WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS
ACROSS SCNTL/SE ZONES GIVEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST DEW POINTS.

UPPER LOW INVOF OF SE CA/WRN AZ BORDER APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT.
TWO MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVES DIVING DOWN BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP OR REFORM THE UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER SE
AZ SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE ENTIRE TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. WILL GO WITH PC SKIES ACROSS THE
WEST ON MONDAY BUT MAINTAIN CHC OR SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST DURING THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMS ARE TOUGH CALL...AS WE THINK THERE
WILL BE NEAR ADVY SNOWS ABOVE 9000 OR 9500 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ACCUMS JUST ADVY LEVELS (1-3)
TONIGHT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE REEVALUATE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.

MAIN ISSUE IN EXTENDED WILL BE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST WED...AND ALL THE EAST BY THU. KJ

ABQ EB 043/063 040/060 038 41535
SAF EB 037/057 033/056 030 41646
TCC CE 045/063 043/060 041 41835

.ABQ...SVR TSTM WATCH TIL 03Z SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

NMZ001>021-026-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE
SANDIA MANZANO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1/2 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS. AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT...LOOK FOR
SNOW TO FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8500 FT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND EXIT
MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AND SOME HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BUT ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PEAKS. A SIGNIFICANT POLAR COLD SURGE MAY
ALSO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT SEEN A
WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE ACROSS THE EAST MAY DO SO WITH THIS
FRONT.

KJ