Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
219 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

S/WS IN THE STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SH/TS
DEVELOPMENT. THE 100+ KT WINDS AT 300MB ARE IMPRESSIVE ALONG WITH 50+
KT WINDS AT 500MB. PROFILERS SHOW 50+ WINDS ABOVE 500MB WITH THE
STRONGEST AREA WITHIN THE THIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OVER S NM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PLUME IS SLIDING TO THE N AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE SH/TS DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE GOOD PLACEMENT OF
SYSTEM AT INITIATION. ETA TRACKS WELL WITH WV SAT. ETA HAS A COUPLE
OF JETS CUTTING ACROSS NM THROUGH THU AND THEREFORE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF NM. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
NRN PART OF THE STATE AND MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL LEAVE
THIS TO THE NEXT SHIFTS FOR A MORE PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE
NEXT ELEMENT IS PRECIP. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PLUME IS ATTACHED
TO A NICE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE W OF BAJA. MODELS DON/T HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. BELIEVE  SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL TRANSLATE OVER NM AND HELP WITH PRECIP CHANCES. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE THE LOW BRINGS WITH IT WILL REMAIN N IN CO AND UT. A COLD
FRONT STILL CLIPS THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE BUT WITH THE UPPER LVL
JET WILL NOT ADVANCE WEST ON WED. A SLOW SW-WARD SLIDE WED NIGHT
BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE NC PLAINS BY THU MORNING. STRONG SWRLY FLOW
WILL FORCE THE FRONT EAST DURING THE DAY THU. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
ON SAT EVENING PUSHING THRU NM BY SUN BRINGING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
THE STATE.AS

ABQ BN 052/074 050/072 048 23113
SAF BN 045/072 042/070 040 23122
TCC BE 052/078 049/070 047 23224

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH. DUE TO THEIR
FAST MOVEMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PASSING
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...INCLUDING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
COUNTRY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KJ

NMZ001>021-026-020400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...STRONG WIND EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING WILL AFFECT NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT AS IT SLICES ACROSS
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH A POSSIBLE 5
TO 8 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IN SOME LOCATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH IN COLORADO BUT THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME MOISTURE. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 9000 FEET...SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE EASTCENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE A SURGE OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED TO THE EAST.

AS/BW/PM/RJ/DK/EP