Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
210 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

SHARP...VIGOROUS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF WIND...RAIN...COOLER TEMPS...AND EVEN SOME HIGH EVEVATION SNOWS.
IMPROVING TOMORROW MOST AREAS BUT QUITE COOL...THEN MOSTLY DRY AND
WARMER FROM FRI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRST THE WIND. WILL LET CURRENT WIND ADVISORY DIE A NATURAL DEATH
THIS PM AND WILL NOT REISSUE FOR THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH COULD BE A FEW
LOCATIONS REACH CRITERIA BRIEFLY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TONIGHT OVER
THE E...WITH AND FOR A EW HOURS BEHIND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. BELIEVE
FOR THE MOST PART WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY. WINDS UPSTREAM IN ERN CO AND WY...AND WRN NB AND KS HAVE
BEEN JUST BELOW OUR CRITERIA. WINDS DO PICK UP AT 700MB TONIGHT BUT
MAY NOT ALL MIX DOWN. WILL KEEP IT WINDY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THU IN
THE E. MORE TRANQUIL FRI AND BEYOND.

NOW PRECIP. VERY ACTIVE ALL OF THE CWA NOW EXCEPT FAR S AND E AND
ENTIRE AREA IN FOR SOME PRECIP TONIGHT. ALL MODELS PINPOINT THE NE
FOR THE MOST RAINFALL AND AGREE WITH THIS. CATEGORICAL POPS THIS
AREA WITH LIKELY POPS NC MOUNTAINS AND EC PLAINS...CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NRN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8500
FEET WITH A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION LIKELY ABOVE 9500 FEET. PRECIP
LINGERS INTO THU ACROSS THE E. DRY FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NC AND NE FOR TUE AND WED AHEAD OF THEN
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

FINALLY TEMPS. A SHARP CHANGE TO COOLER TONIGHT ALL BUT FAR SE AND
MUCH COOLER THU OVER THE S AND E. MOST IMPRESSIVE WILL BE FROM ABOUT
TCC TO ROW WITH 20-25 DEGREES OF COOLING. CHILLY THU NIGHT THEN TEMPS
REBOUND FRI PM AND SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NE TUE AND E WED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY DROP S OVER THIS AREA.

ABQ BU 051/073 050/078 054 40410
SAF BU 043/068 039/075 043 40510
TCC EU 051/065 048/079 053 40630

.ABQ...NONE.

CHJ

NMZ001>021-026-181630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MPH.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.  ALTHOUGH BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY ONE
LOCATION.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PASS
OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE STATE BY AROUND MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

**** SERVICE CHANGE REMINDER ****
ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1 2002 AT 0400 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
/UTC/...NWS ALBUQUERQUE IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES LISTED BELOW WILL BEGIN ISSUING THE OPERATIONAL DAILY TEXT
PRODUCT CALLED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/. THIS NEW HWO
PRODUCT WILL REPLACE THIS CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AS
THE /SPS/ PRODUCT.

CUSTOMERS WHO WISH TO CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NEW MEXICO SHOULD ADD THE COMMUNICATIONS IDENTIFIERS
SHOWN BELOW TO THE APPROPRIATE DATABASES.

ISSUING OFFICE       WMO HEADING  AWIPS ID
WFO ALBUQUERQUE NM   FLUS45 KABQ  HWOABQ   NORTHERN-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WFO EL PASO TX       FLUS44 KEPZ  HWOELP   SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
WFO MIDLAND TX       FLUS44 KMAF  HWOMAF   SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
**** END ****

NMZ001>021-026-190400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2002

...WIND...RAIN...SNOW...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEW MEXICO...

A FALL-LIKE STORM CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND EXIT
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH NEEDED RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND MORE
IS ON THE WAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND THEN DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN
ENERGY FROM THIS STORM WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 9000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
LIKELY BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET.

WINDS ARE THE OTHER BIG STORY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEN LATER...AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO TEXAS...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL TURN NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH
AS WELL...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR COMES
DOWN.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH 30S AND
40S COMMON. SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY.